Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
936 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRINGER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT MOVES FROM THE MIDDLE MS VLY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 140+ KNOT UPR LVL
JET...THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
BOMB OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE RESPONSE TO THIS RAPID
DEEPENING WILL BE A VERY STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LLJ TO AFFECT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT STRENGTH...BUT TAKING A BLEND OF
THEM...45 TO 55 KNOTS AT 925 MB AND 80+ KNOTS AT 850 MB LOOK
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND ADVISORY
AS THE THREAT FOR WAA SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNDRAFT/PCPN DRAGGING IN THE FORM OF GUSTS NEAR OR
GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE A COOL SEASON
QLCS WHICH IS DEVELOPING OVER INDIANA ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AS OF THIS ISSUANCE. SFC CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING WITH A
CONVECTIVE LINE WITH THE FRONT. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE
LATEST HRRR SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD MOVE ACRS OUR
REGION BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z...PLUS OR MINUS 1 HOUR ON EITHER SIDE
OF THIS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOUT 100-200 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WITH 300-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE THROUGH 3 KM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS LINE. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.
HOWEVER...AS WE KNOW IN THESE PARTS WITH THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...A
LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CAN ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THAT THE LINE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AT ABOUT 60
TO 65 MPH IS A CALL FOR CONCERN AND THIS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN
OUR HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT ALSO
EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO IF ANY SHALLOW
UPDRAFT BECOMES ROBUST ENOUGH TO LIFT HIGH VALUES OF 0-1 KM
HELICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THIS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AS
WELL AS THE SPC SWODY1. SO...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WAA SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDER
...ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACRS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUCH THAT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
FROM SW TO NE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPENDED ON
FRONTAL TIMING. HAVE LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE
UPPER 50S FAR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH AND DEEP SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY PIVOT AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO BRIEFLY
SETTLE INTO OUR REGION PER DRY SLOT BEHIND THIS STRONG SYSTEM.

CAA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN ON FRIDAY...AND WITH SUNSHINE
EARLY ON...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST. UNDER A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT...S/WV ENERGY WILL
BEGIN TO DIG SE TOWARD OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY STRATOCUMULUS
AND MID LVL MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND FOR
LOWS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS SATURDAY WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND COLD ADVECTION
AFFECTING OUR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS COLD
ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MAINLY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TO
OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH CROSSES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START OF COOL ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY WHICH WILL
BEGIN A WARNING TREND THAT WILL LAST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AND BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA. THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM'S EFFECTS ON OUR AREA BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY AT SOME POINT DURING THE TWO
DAY PERIOD. THEREFORE...AM FORECASTING 50 POPS FOR A LONG DURATION
DURING THE TIME PERIOD UNTIL HIGHER POPS CAN BE FOCUSED OVER A
SHORTER TIME...WHEN TIMING CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL ADVERSELY
AFFECT TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR UNTIL IT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TAPPING AN 80 KNOT
850 MB FLOW WILL BE VERY STRONG...WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 30 KNOTS IN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH GUSTS COULD RISE ABOVE 20 KNOTS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
344 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

A HIGHER END WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN IF THERE IS
NO THUNDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1101 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICHMOND                39.83N 84.89W
10/31/2013                   WAYNE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE FELL ON TWO CARS PLUS SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES
            DOWN AROUND WAYNE COUNTY.

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     TSTM WND GST     VERSAILLES              39.06N 85.26W
10/31/2013  E60 MPH          RIPLEY             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH WITH TREES BENT A QUARTER
            TO HALFWAY OVER

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1108 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PENNTOWN            39.27N 85.12W
10/31/2013                   RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE FELL ACROSS SR-46 AND ONTO VEHICLE

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1110 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILAN                   39.13N 85.13W
10/31/2013  M62 MPH          RIPLEY             IN   MESONET

            HOME WEATHER STATION

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1116 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     TSTM WND GST     UNION CITY              40.20N 84.79W
10/31/2013  M55 MPH          DARKE              OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1123 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND GST     KVES VERSAILLES APT     40.20N 84.53W
10/31/2013  M46 MPH          DARKE              OH   AWOS

&&

SNYDER