Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENT
BAND...ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
MODERATE TO STRONG ML CAPE OF 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTH...TO 3500
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
AROUND 30 KT TO ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN LINES AND CLUSTERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED.

THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR
EVEN WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ARRIVE AT OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CELLULAR NATURE OF THE CLOUD FIELD. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT THE STRONG JULY SUN FROM COUNTERACTING THE COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES IF
NOT MORE FROM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN INTO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WE DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA
AND WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITIES...WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ALOFT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENERGY BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AND PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH JUST TO
OUR NW. IN A MODERATE TO STRONG UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH JUST
ENOUGH AMPLE SHEAR...CLUSTERS OF STORMS...SOME IN LINEAR SEGMENTS
SHOULD PROGRESS FROM NW TO SE ACRS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
24Z. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WIND GUST AND HAIL POTENTIAL AT
ANY GIVEN SITE...BUT STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE. WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...HAVE
PLACED A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WHEN THE BEST THREAT
IS EXPECTED AT EACH TAF SITES. THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHOW A
MARKED WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL USER IN DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IN A LOW LEVEL CAA REGIME WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS WHICH MAY END UP IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. HAVE SHOWED THIS IN THE TAFS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK LIFT TO A LOW VFR CUMULUS DECK BY 18Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THEN AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

INZ059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-240900-
UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-
GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON.

INZ050-058-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-240900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...MIAMI
VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END BY EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
324 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

INZ059-066-OHZ060-070-071-077-078-232000-
UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-BUTLER OH-HAMILTON OH-PREBLE OH-WARREN OH-
CLERMONT OH-
324 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLERMONT...
WARREN...SOUTHERN PREBLE...NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...BUTLER...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LEBANON TO TRENTON TO SALEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OXFORD...MORROW...
MASON...KINGS ISLAND...HAMILTON...WEST CHESTER...LOVELAND...
FAIRFIELD...COLERAIN TOWNSHIP...SHARONVILLE...READING...MILFORD...
MADEIRA...FOREST PARK AND BLUE ASH.

ALSO...OREGONIA...CHARLOTTESVILLE...HAGEMAN...FORT ANCIENT...SOUTH
LEBANON...MIXERVILLE...NEW MIAMI...MAUSTOWN...HUGHES AND KINGS MILLS
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3962 8458 3960 8448 3959 8448 3959 8445
      3952 8411 3948 8399 3913 8401 3919 8455
      3934 8479 3949 8492 3967 8497

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

OHZ053-062-232000-
CLARK OH-GREENE OH-
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENE AND CLARK
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SNYDERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...SPRINGFIELD AND SOUTH
CHARLESTON.

ALSO...HUSTEAD...SPRINGFIELD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...PITCHIN...BUCK CREEK
STATE PARK...NEW MOOREFIELD...HARMONY...LISBON...SOUTH VIENNA...
PLATTSBURG AND BRIGHTON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3999 8351 3979 8358 3978 8359 3983 8401
      4001 8399

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

INZ073-074-232000-
DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF OTTER VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OSGOOD...VERSAILLES...
MILAN AND DILLSBORO.

ALSO...HOLTON...NAPOLEON...OTTER VILLAGE...BALLSTOWN...VERSAILLES
LAKE...SUNMAN...MOORES HILL...WEISBURG...COLD SPRINGS AND NEW ALSACE
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3911 8544 3920 8545 3927 8530 3923 8485
      3899 8506 3909 8545

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