Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
407 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 425 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR BUT WE MAY SEE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF CELLS AS THEY ENCOUNTER CAPES OVER 3000
J/KG IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES IN. CONVECTION WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD CURTAIL CONVECTION IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS A RATHER VIGOROUS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLO TO INDUCE A SFC WAVE WHICH
TRACKS NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWARD THRU THE THE REGION. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY
MONDAY AND THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND THEN CLOSE TO
NORMAL TUESDAY.

MAIN SFC WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED. WILL SHOW
ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE OF THUNDER. DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECT WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES TO BE A LTL BELOW
NORMAL.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY LOOK TO BE A AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S SE. READINGS
CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 80S SOUTHEAST.

SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT TO PROVIDE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS BEING
DRIVEN BY PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND
SOME PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A COLD FRONT WAS LAGGING WELL BEHIND
THIS PRECIPITATION AND WILL SLOWLY SEEP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE
THEY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUR NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR TO LOCAL IFR FOG. TOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC.

ON SUNDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE
A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KCVG/KLCK TAF SITES AS WARM
FRONT ADVANCES...BUT THIS IS FAR OUT ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1127 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-210900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
1127 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

OHZ026-034-035-210900-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
1127 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

OHZ061-062-070-071-202030-
BUTLER OH-GREENE OH-MONTGOMERY OH-WARREN OH-
403 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POAST TOWN
HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FRANKLIN...
MIAMISBURG...SPRINGBORO AND WAYNESVILLE.

ALSO...PEKIN...CENTERVILLE...GENNTOWN...LYTLE...BELLBROOK...CAESAR
CREEK STATE PARK...OREGONIA...MOUNT HOLLY...ROXANNA AND SPRING VALLEY
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3963 8400 3939 8401 3949 8447 3967 8444

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N WILMINGTON          39.47N 83.83W
07/20/2013  M2.05 INCH       CLINTON            OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FELL IN 1.5 HRS ENDING AT 4 PM.

&&

KURZ