Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
CAN BE EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...ACTIVE NIGHT STILL EXPECTED AS AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO CREATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

TORNADO WATCH #130 HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR ROBESON COUNTY IN SE
NC...AS WELL AS DARLINGTON, DILLON, FLORENCE, MARION, MARLBORO, AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES IN NE SC. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CRESTING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...CROSSING
OFFSHORE A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS MOVING INTO AN
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.75 INCHES AND TD/S APPROACHING 70
DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING LLJ EVIDENT ON LATEST KLTX VWP
WILL RISE TO AROUND 50 KTS TONIGHT WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 400-800 J/KG. WHILE THESE SUPPORT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE NOCTURNAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS NEVER
IDEAL FOR DAMAGING STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH ML-LAPSE RATES
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS 600-700MB THERMAL RIDGE ERODES...THEY WILL
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 5.5-6.5 C/KM RANGE...AND BEST JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE BEST SURFACE FORCING. STILL...BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40 KTS WITH THE STRONG LLJ AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
STABLE LAYER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE TONIGHT. BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST ONLY IN THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY
OUTLINED WITHIN THE TO.A...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SECONDARY
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS REMAIN STRONG EVEN WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT /HENCE THE WATCH/ THE PRIMARY STORM MODE
WILL BE BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE CREATING
STRONG-TO-DAMAGING WINDS.

BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...WHICH WILL CROSS BETWEEN APPROX 7PM AND
3AM...A LARGE AREA OF MDT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL EXIST. WHILE SEVERE
THREAT WILL END BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...THIS CONTINUED RAIN WILL
STILL ADD A DECENT SLUG OF QPF...AND EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH IN MANY SPOTS...WITH SCATTERED HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

ACTUAL FROPA WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
SQUALL LINE...AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST TO 5AM OFFSHORE. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE ONCE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER
AS OF LATE. EXPECT LOWS 52-54 FAR WEST...58-61 NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NOTABLE LAGGING OF THE UPPER TROUGH RELATIVE
TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND AN ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE ASSOCIATED JET OVERHEAD BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WILL PROMOTE
POST FRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG THE COAST AT 12Z/8AM EVEN
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL BE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT INFILTRATING AND SHUTTING
DOWN PCPN INTO MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
EQUATING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR APRIL 20TH.

INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD
WILL BRING A PINCHED GRADIENT AND STIFF NE WINDS SUNDAY. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL FAVOR A
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR.
CLOUDS AND BLUSTERY NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND QUITE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE BASICALLY A
ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY WITH A FAIRLY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE EAST
COAST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MAINTAINED THE
CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HPC POPS INCLUDE EASTERN THIRD FOR THURSDAY TO ADDRESS
THE INHERENT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN
INTACT WITH A NOD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...HOWEVER THE ONSET OF
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION WAS BUMPED FORWARD AN HOUR FOR THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT
FIRST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING. MODERATE FRONTAL
LIFT...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL JET...MODERATE BULK SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG. WINDS WILL GUST IN CONVECTION TO 35 KTS OR MORE.

AFTER THE STRONG CONVECTION...EXPECT MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT CLEARS THE INLAND
TERMINALS BY 08Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST...WITH IFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY 15Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING
TO BUILD IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS BUT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND
SEAS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS RANGE FROM 7 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...TO
4-5 FT CLOSE TO THE COAST. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RISE DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...HIGHEST LATE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT STILL WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
AS OPPOSED TO A GALE WARNING SINCE STILL-COLD SSTS WILL LIMIT
SOMEWHAT THE GUST POTENTIAL. FROPA WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT STILL AT 15-20 KTS. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH
6-9 FT TONIGHT...FALLING SLOWLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED MUCH STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS CONVECTION WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 4AM AND 7AM SATURDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD
TO SEA LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NOT A BANNER WEEKEND FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES AS
THE OCEAN WILL BE HAZARDOUS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
VERY BRIEF LULL IN WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS SEAS RECOVER
ONLY TEMPORARILY. THE SEA IS ALREADY AGITATED...AND SATURDAY EVEN
THOUGH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT EASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...THE
SEAS WILL NOT FULLY RECOVER IN TIME BEFORE NE WINDS INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND RE-BUILD THE WAVES. LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING
FROM THE BAHAMAS OFFSHORE OF OUR COAST WILL BRING 7-11 FT SEAS
BY LATE SUNDAY. LARGE S WAVES INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL SUBSIDE A
BIT ONLY TO BECOME GROWING E WAVES SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE DAY MONDAY.
STRONG TSTMS MAY BE IMPACTING THE OUTER WATERS AND THE GULF STREAM
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...FAIRLY STRONG WINDS INITIALLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH THE CENTER PROBABLY JUST OUTSIDE THE COASTAL
WATERS COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST TO CREATE A
CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT. SHOULD SEE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS DROPPING
TO 15-20 EARLY TUESDAY. FINALLY...BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AND A RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP. REGARDING
SEAS...MAY SEE SOME SEVEN FOOTERS INITIALLY WITH 5-7 FEET ACROSS
OUTER WATERS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY WITH THE WINDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
         254-256.

&&

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/JDW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
549 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

SCZ017-192215-
MARLBORO-
549 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MARLBORO COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WALLACE...OR ABOUT OVER CHERAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CHAVISTOWN AND WALLACE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3471 7957 3463 7980 3464 7980
      3466 7982 3480 7994 3481 7993 3481 7990
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 232DEG 23KT 3474 7984

15