Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SW WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THERE ARE SOME MORE MINOR IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE
MEAN TROUGH THAT ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM IA DOWN INTO WESTERN OK.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL KS AND THEN INTO WESTERN OK AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THU)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MUCH OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS EVENING WILL BE DICTATED BY WHAT
OCCURS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE WILL BE. STILL FEEL THAT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OBVIOUSLY ANY STORM THAT GOES UP THIS EVENING WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN KS ON WED AS
AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TO START THE DAY THE
DRYLINE WILL BE OUT NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER BUT WILL MOVE OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE DRYLINE WILL STAY
WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS. THE
NAM WOULD SUGGEST VERY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS HAS MUCH
BETTER CONVERGENCE. EVEN WITH THE WAVE LIFTING OUT...BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS HAVE MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF CAPPING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14. WITH THE DRYLINE STAYING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE
ALONG IT...NOT ORALLY IMPRESSED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE CONVECTION ON
WED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THE BIGGER STORY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA WED MAYBE THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 MPH OVER CENTRAL KS.

STILL CONFIDENT THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOR
WED NIGHT AS AN MCS DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH SEVERE WX POTENTIAL ON
THU...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. THE WED NIGHT
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST AND ALSO EXPECTING AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE OVER SOUTHERN KS. MORE IMPORTANTLY BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM FINALLY BRING A STRONG UPPER JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KS AND ESPECIALLY OK. THE WEST/NW ORIENTATION OF THIS JET WILL SETUP
A PRIME SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...WITH BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AS SUNSET APPROACHES...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN THE SVR WX DEPARTMENT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR
FRI AS THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KS.
IN ADDITION...A VERY STRONG JET WILL REMAIN THROUGH ALL OF KS
PROVIDING GREAT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BY SAT AFTERNOON THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR SUN AND MON AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS PERSISTING. STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT ANY SITE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
REALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  79  67  82 /  20  20  60  40
HUTCHINSON      68  79  66  83 /  30  20  60  30
NEWTON          68  79  66  81 /  20  20  60  40
ELDORADO        69  79  66  80 /  20  10  70  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  79  67  81 /  10  10  60  40
RUSSELL         67  82  64  84 /  40  30  70  20
GREAT BEND      67  82  64  86 /  40  30  60  20
SALINA          69  81  65  81 /  30  20  70  40
MCPHERSON       68  80  66  82 /  30  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     70  81  69  78 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         69  81  68  79 /  10  10  60  60
IOLA            69  81  67  79 /  10  10  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    70  81  68  78 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-291900-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
HUTCHINSON TO NEWTON...TO COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SEEING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1046 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

KSZ070-281630-
GREENWOOD-
1046 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 1042 AM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF EUREKA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 9634 3795 9647 3809 9638 3809 9636
      3812 9636 3818 9632 3818 9596 3817 9595
      3791 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 236DEG 41KT 3793 9631

JAKUB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

KSZ070-282145-
GREENWOOD-
415 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF EUREKA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 9650 3782 9653 3788 9652 3811 9634
      3787 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 228DEG 35KT 3781 9648