Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TRANSIENT MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY REMAINS FURTHER EAST
EMBEDDED ALONG A LINE OVER THE FLINT HILLS AREA. THIS LINE WILL
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH AFTER 01Z AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 04-05Z
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  56  77 /  40  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      58  80  55  76 /  30  20  10  10
NEWTON          58  81  55  76 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        61  82  56  77 /  60  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  84  58  78 /  60  30  40  10
RUSSELL         53  78  51  73 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  78  52  74 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          55  79  54  75 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       56  80  54  76 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  82  65  79 /  80  60  80  50
CHANUTE         66  82  62  78 /  80  60  70  30
IOLA            66  82  62  78 /  80  50  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  82  63  78 /  80  60  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210300-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF BOTH HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH...ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...A FEW
OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
901 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ094-095-098-099-200245-
CHAUTAUQUA-ELK-MONTGOMERY-WILSON-
901 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAUTAUQUA...ELK...MONTGOMERY AND WILSON
COUNTIES...

AT 856 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LONGTON...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SEDAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 9625 3760 9602 3760 9596 3770 9596
      3773 9594 3772 9552 3744 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 238DEG 52KT 3740 9596

MCGUIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
905 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             10 WSW CEDAR VALE       37.03N 96.65W
05/19/2013  E2.75 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ALL OVER THE ROAD JUST
            ACROSS THE BORDER.

0827 PM     HAIL             9 WSW CEDAR VALE        37.03N 96.64W
05/19/2013  E3.00 INCH       COWLEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS 3 INCH HAIL BUT IT WAS MOSTLY PENNY
            AND NICKEL SIZED.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     HAIL             CANEY                   37.01N 95.93W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES QUARTER TO POSSIBLY A LITTLE
            BIT LARGER SIZED HAIL.

&&

VJP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             COFFEYVILLE             37.04N 95.63W
05/19/2013  E1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     HAIL             3 N EDNA                37.10N 95.36W
05/19/2013  E1.25 INCH       LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
            WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INITIAL WIND ESTIMATE
            WAS 50 MPH.

&&

VJP