Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRY-LINE AND COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING ALONG A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SUPER-
CELL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DRY-LINE AND FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM
AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION LOOKS MORE IMMINENT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  56  77 /  40  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      58  80  55  76 /  30  20  10  10
NEWTON          58  81  55  76 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        61  82  56  77 /  60  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  84  58  78 /  60  30  40  10
RUSSELL         53  78  51  73 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  78  52  74 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          55  79  54  75 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       56  80  54  76 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  82  65  79 /  80  60  80  50
CHANUTE         66  82  62  78 /  80  60  70  30
IOLA            66  82  62  78 /  80  50  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  82  63  78 /  80  60  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201815-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXCEPTIONALLY POWERFUL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL AS LARGE AS BASEBALLS...A FEW TORNADOES THAT MAY BE STRONG
AND DAMAGING 70 TO 80 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF BOTH HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH...ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY THAT MAY CAUSE FLOODING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...A FEW
OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS VERY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TORNADO          2 S PERTH               37.14N 97.49W
05/19/2013                   SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO WHICH WENT JUST SOUTH
            OF HIS LOCATION.

&&

VJP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
422 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             1 S PERTH               37.16N 97.49W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP