Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1253 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS PM/EARLY EVE
AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL BE IN CENTRAL KS WHERE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS. OTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THIS RAIN TO BE TOO HEAVY...AVERAGING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH. KEY
QUESTION FOR THIS PM/EVE IS HOW FAR NORTH CAN THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
MOVE...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH
NORTHERN OK. IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT THIS FRONT MAY LIFT INTO OUR
SOUTHERN KS COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER TO GET MUCH FURTHER
NORTH COULD PROVE DIFFICULT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS/RAIN-COOLING EFFECTS. IF PARTIAL SUN/HEATING CAN OCCUR IN THE
SOUTH...AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS PM/EARLY EVE
WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF W-NWRLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TARGETING SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO REACH 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. THIS IS
THE 99TH PERCENTILE ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALSO
TARGETS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN UPWARD MOTION. A
MESOSCALE COMPLEX OF RAIN/T-STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY SHOW BACKBUILDING TENDENCY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS/FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS. HAVE EXPECTED HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BASIN AVERAGE IN
THAT AREA. THIS IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN QPF
MAX AND ECMWF QPF MAX IN TERMS OF LOCATION/AMOUNTS OF MAXIMUM
RAINFALL. WILL KEEP PRESENT FLOOD WATCH AREAL CONFIGURATION...HOWEVER
WILL EXTEND IT TIL 18 UTC TUESDAY ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR COUNTY FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH/END LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL WAVE WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT PROBABLY STAYING A FEW-SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE KANSAS REGION FRIDAY...AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE VFR OR MVFR WILL
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME...PERIODS OF IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO
EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  69  86  70 /  80 100  90  10
HUTCHINSON      79  68  85  69 / 100 100  80  10
NEWTON          79  69  85  68 /  90 100  90  10
ELDORADO        80  70  85  68 /  80 100  90  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  71  88  70 /  80 100  90  20
RUSSELL         74  66  85  66 /  80  80  50  10
GREAT BEND      78  67  86  67 /  80  80  60  10
SALINA          74  67  85  67 / 100  90  70  10
MCPHERSON       78  68  85  68 / 100  90  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  72  87  71 /  60 100 100  20
CHANUTE         81  69  85  69 /  70 100 100  20
IOLA            80  69  85  69 /  70 100 100  20
PARSONS-KPPF    84  71  86  70 /  60 100  90  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-068>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-
082.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301800-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
WHILE THE MAIN RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME
COUNTY FLOODING...URBAN FLOODING...AND FLOODING OF
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS. REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS
MAY RESULT IN COUNTY FLOODING...URBAN FLOODING...AND FLOODING OF
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS. REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR DETAILS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WILL BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

KSZ049>051-067-068-291730-
HARVEY-MCPHERSON-RENO-RICE-SALINE-
1147 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARVEY...MCPHERSON...NORTHEAST RENO...RICE AND
SALINE COUNTIES...

AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9740 3809 9736 3800 9786 3837 9810
      3852 9800 3852 9792 3864 9793 3870 9788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 248DEG 23KT 3869 9778 3807 9771

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N LITTLE RIVER        38.42N 98.02W
07/29/2013  E2.00 INCH       RICE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN APPROXIMATELY
            AN HOUR AND A HALF.

&&

VJP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

KSZ052-292015-
MARION-
244 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEHIGH...OR 13 MILES WEST OF MARION...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9694 3827 9688 3826 9736 3854 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 272DEG 30KT 3840 9721

LAWSON