Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
747 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

SVR TSRA CONTINUE TO LINE UP ALONG NNE-SSW ORIENTED 850-MB COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVG VERY SLOWLY E THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN
THAT THE MID-UPR CYCLONE IS LIKEWISE MAKING VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS. PER
THESE REASONS HAVE FINE-TUNED POPS/WX/QPF TO SHIFT HIGHEST POPS FURTHER
W THRU ~10PM...THUS LOWERING POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SE KS DURING THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP MODE ALONG NW CORRIDOR CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH
-SN -FZRA & IP ALL BEING REPORTED SINCE ~630PM. WX GRIDS HAVE LIKEWISE
FINE-TUNED WX GRIDS TO NO DOUBT REFLECT THESE MOST RECENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG/EAST OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR SO
FAR...LIKELY DUE TO THE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR NOT
ABLE TO DIMINISH THE SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND
ACTIVITY RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPER FRONTAL AND UPPER FORCING.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THAT THREAT OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT ELEVATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE 850-700MB FRONTAL ZONE AND UPPER
FORCING. GIVEN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 50-60 KTS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DIME TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THEREFORE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS THROUGH 1 AM. VERY ODD
SETUP...AS THIS CONVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...SO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WINTERY
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS OF 230 PM...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST KS
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH INTO WESTERN OK CONTINUED
TO PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE 70S EXISTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S AND 40S IMMEDIATELY IN ITS
WAKE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE AND DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH
SPUN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ANTICIPATING SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE FORMING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR.
SINCE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OUTRUNNING THE DEEPER FRONTAL AND UPPER
FORCING...UNSURE ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD/SEVERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE. HOWEVER...THINKING THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR QUARTER-GOLFBALL
SIZE HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GIVEN THE STRONG LINEAR
FRONTAL FORCING IN CONCERT WITH STOUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MAIN STORM
MODE WILL BE BROKEN LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
GENERALLY WEST OF THE TURNPIKE...SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL PREVENT DEEP COLD AIR FROM ADVANCING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY STOUT WARM/MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB TO
PERSIST WELL TO THE WEST OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
ENERGY CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...TIGHTENING THE
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO BUST OUT WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST...ANTICIPATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
CONVECTIVE/HEAVY IN NATURE...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR RAPID ICE/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS. ANTICIPATING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY PUSH
INTO EASTERN KS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
DAY MAY ALLOW MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY LATE MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS...INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND
IT EAST ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...IF CONVECTIVE
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MATERIALIZES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST ACROSS
MID-AMERICA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS WARMING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND...WITH
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR EARLY-MID
NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS (ALONG WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS)...SO CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

A MESSY SITUATION HAS COMMENCED OVER CNTRL KS WHERE WINTRY MIX IS IN
PROGRESS OVER KRSL & KSLN 30-50NM WNW OF SHARP COLD FRONT THAT HAS
FINALLY CROSSED KS TURNPIKE. IFR CIGS & VSBYS LIKELY OVER ALL OF CNTRL
KS FOR MOST OF 10/12Z EDITION. STG-SVR TSRAGR CONTINUE TO LINE UP ALONG
NNE-SSW ORIENTED 850-MB COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY E
TOWARD CNTRL & SC KS. GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA. AS SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SE NW WINDS ~22KTS
/25MPH WITH ~30KT/35MPH GUSTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE NIGHT.
KCNU TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS TIL ~05Z WHEN STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE CIGS & VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TO
IFR. MANY UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. FIRE DANGER MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED BY THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BY ANY
MEANS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  37  27  48 /  80  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      26  36  26  47 /  80  60  10  10
NEWTON          27  37  26  45 /  80  80  10  10
ELDORADO        29  38  27  47 /  80  80  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  39  26  50 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELL         23  35  25  45 /  60  50  10   0
GREAT BEND      23  36  25  46 /  60  50  10   0
SALINA          26  37  26  45 /  80  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       25  36  26  46 /  80  60  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     37  43  29  50 /  70  80  10  10
CHANUTE         37  42  30  49 /  70  80  10  10
IOLA            37  42  30  48 /  70  80  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    37  42  30  49 /  70  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ052-053-
068-069-083-092-093.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051-067.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ082-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
421 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
421 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE GENERALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE WILL BE QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...60 TO 70 MPH
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE MAIN THREATS WEST OF THE
TURNPIKE WILL BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
LIKELY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AT LEAST STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMB/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
450 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             10 W COTTONWOOD FALLS   38.37N 96.73W
04/09/2013  E0.88 INCH       CHASE              KS   STORM CHASER

            COURTESY SPOTTERNETWORK.

&&

CWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ032-092245-
RUSSELL-
514 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF GORHAM...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3914 9903 3914 9887 3913 9887
      3891 9895 3892 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 198DEG 40KT 3903 9904

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
711 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

KSZ048>051-100045-
ELLSWORTH-MCPHERSON-RICE-SALINE-
711 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLSWORTH...MCPHERSON...RICE AND SALINE
COUNTIES...

AT 709 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LYONS...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HUTCHINSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9806 3863 9780 3817 9815 3825 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 208DEG 40KT 3830 9819

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
749 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             2 N LYONS               38.37N 98.20W
04/09/2013  E0.88 INCH       RICE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CWH

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