Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND AREAS EAST OF I-135.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NEB WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NE KS THIS
EVENING...HELPING PUSH A COLD FRONT TO NEAR I-70. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOST
LIKELY NEAR I-70...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KMHK AND KSLN WITH HP
SUPERCELLS THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE INITIALLY AS LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE NW FLOW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FOR LATE JULY OF
45-55 KTS. THIS ALONG WITH CLOCKWISE ROTATIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS
SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS
THIS SUPERCELL DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KS.  ALSO STRONG 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FOR THE INITIAL STORMS TO MERGE INTO A
COMPLEX OF STORMS AS THIS EVENING GOES ON...AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES WITHIN THE COMPLEX WHICH COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF CHASE-BUTLER-
COWLEY CO LINE. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS ALREADY BEEN UPDATED
TO SHOW THIS HEIGHTENED CHANCE.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHEAST
KS...AS LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW PW VALUES OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL OVER THIS AREA...FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
LATEST NAM/WRF SHOWS THAT INITIAL SVR COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING SOUTH INTO NE OK LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST KS
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA LINGERING OVER SE KS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. SO CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW AROUND 2.25
INCHES/3 HOURS. SO A BORDERLINE FLASHING FLOODING THREAT...GIVEN THE
FORECASTED VALUES.  WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WED: COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WED AS WELL...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CEN KS FOR WED AFTN. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS OVER SRN KS...FOR WED AFTN AS MODELS LINGER MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG IT OR JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF IT. COULD SEE SOME HUMID AIR LINGER FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CHANCES
PUSH SOUTH INTO OK...THEN THE DRIER AIR TRYS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA FOR WED NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.

THU-FRI:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES FOR
THU...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DAY ON THU
INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY THU NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST.

COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGER ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF FRI AS 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN
KS.  SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO FRI AS WELL.  THE NW FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY
COOL FOR LATE JULY...WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
80S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH NW UPPER FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S.  THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTENS OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAINTAINED LOW POPS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMERGE
FROM THE ROCKIES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE
AFFECTED APPEAR TO INCLUDE SLN...HUT...ICT AND CNU. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR
REDUCED VSBYS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLD...LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY
REMAINING IN SOUTHEAST KS. PREVAILING WIND COMPONENT WILL BE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  89  71  89 /  40  20  10  50
HUTCHINSON      70  88  70  89 /  40  10  10  50
NEWTON          70  88  69  89 /  50  20  10  50
ELDORADO        72  87  68  89 /  60  20  10  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  90  71  89 /  50  20  20  40
RUSSELL         64  88  70  87 /  30  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      64  88  70  86 /  30  10  10  50
SALINA          67  88  69  89 /  50  10  10  50
MCPHERSON       68  88  69  88 /  50  10  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     77  88  70  91 /  60  40  30  20
CHANUTE         73  86  68  89 /  70  30  20  20
IOLA            73  86  67  89 /  70  20  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    75  87  70  90 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
613 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS TO
80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. IN ADDITION...ANY
STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF LULL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND
CONTINUED CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING APPEARS TO BE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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