Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

CURRENTLY HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...ONE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR NW KS...ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH
AND WAS BEING AIDED BY THE CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. IN
ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST OF MEDICINE LODGE TO JUST SOUTH OF PONCA CITY.

THE MORNING CONVECTION LOOKED TO DEVELOP DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS
ABOVE 850MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT THIS ACTIVITY GOT
GOING ONCE REMNANT ENERGY FROM DISSIPATING STORMS OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA MOVED OVER THE AREA. A REGIONAL LOOP OF 88DS EVEN SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN MCV TRACKING ALONG THE TOP/ICT CWA BORDER
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

VERY DIFFICULT STORM FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THERE IS A COUPLE
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS TO GET CONVECTION. WILL FIRST BE WATCHING THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. IT APPEARS THERE IS NOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG IT OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED.
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOP WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NW/NORTH CENTRAL KS
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND SW. HOWEVER
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS ALONG IT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH
WOULD ONLY IMPACT A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LAST
BUT NOT LEAST...CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO PERCOLATE NORTHWEST OF
WICHITA IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED TODAY...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA
WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON CONTINUING TO BRING THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH THE NAM A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
SOUTHWARD PUSH. THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG IT BUT WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AS MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE
ON TRACKING OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA TUE EVENING AND ACROSS
EASTERN KS OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT...MAY END UP
NEEDING A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

JUST LIKE TODAY...TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE DAY. IF WE CAN REMAIN PRECIP
FREE...850MB TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 100-103 RANGE OVER
SOUTHERN KS.

AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST...THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED
BEFORE GETTING HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN OK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON THU WHICH WILL ALLOW
RICH MOISTURE TO WORK BACK OVER WESTERN KS. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS
SOME UPPER ENERGY FROM REMNANT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STORM CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREEING ON THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CHANCES THU NIGHT AS A MORE POTENT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WE LOOK TO STAY IN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

COMPLEX SCENARIO THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...WITH PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...AS A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FESTER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS ACTIVITY ROLLS SOUTHEAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS...HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  98  70  90 /  20  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      73  97  69  89 /  20  20  40  10
NEWTON          72  96  68  88 /  20  20  50  20
ELDORADO        72  95  70  89 /  20  20  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  99  72  91 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELL         71  94  65  90 /  30  30  40  10
GREAT BEND      71  98  67  89 /  20  20  40  10
SALINA          71  93  66  88 /  30  30  50  10
MCPHERSON       72  96  68  89 /  20  30  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  96  72  90 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         72  95  68  88 /  40  30  50  30
IOLA            72  94  68  87 /  40  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    73  95  70  89 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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