Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS BEEN THE SWD PROGRESSION OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-UPR DECK WAVE THAT HAS...IN TURN...BEEN
SCOOTING E/SE AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN INTENSE CYCLONE POSITIONED
OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE MID-UPR DECK WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO SHEAR AS
IT SPRINTS E OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THE LOSS OF A MID-LVL KICKER
WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL IN AN E-W MANNER THROUGH CNTRL KS. ALONG
& S OF THE FRONT A MOIST & OBVIOUSLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS MOST OF ERN
KS. NUMEROUS (+)TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP & STRENGTHEN FROM & CNTRL KS TO
NE & ERN KS. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY MID-LVL SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING AS IT
DRIFTS E TOWARD THE SE CO/SW KS BORDER. A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDS S/W FROM
CNTRL TO SW KS. WITH (+)TSRA HAVING BROKEN OUT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL & ERN
KS HAVE INCREASED TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR THIS EVENING.
THE SWRN PLAINS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD STRETCH AS IT CONTINUES ITS EWD
DRIFT ACROSS KS TONIGHT & SUN MORNING. AS SUCH (+)TSRA SHOULD INCREASE
FURTHER OVER MOST OF CNTRL & ESPECIALLY ERN KS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH HAVE UPPED THE POP ANTE A BIT PRIMARILY ALONG & E OF I-135. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED QPF AS TSRA WOULD CONTINUE PRODUCING +RA. WITH THE SECOND
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE SHEARING AS IT MOVES E OVER THE REMAINDER OF KS ON SUN
TSRA WOULD GRADUALLY END IN A W-E MANNER SUN & SUN NGT.

MON & MON NGT:
ALTHOUGH MID-UPR DYNAMICS ARE FEEBLE...A VERY WARM & MOIST AIRMASS WOULD
INDUCE WIDELY SCT TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEIGHBORHOOD & AS SUCH HAVE
RETAINED ~20% POPS FOR MOST AREAS.

TUE & TUE NGT:
STILL EXPECT TSRA POTENTIAL TO GREATLY INCREASE TUE NGT AS THE NEXT MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE SPRINTS SE TOWARD NE & ERN KS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO STRENGTH BUT THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A KICK TO
FORCE THE ATTENDANT BUT WEAK COLD FRONT S/SE TOWARD CNTRL KS. WITH THIS
MID-LVL WAVE A BIT STRONGER THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE FURTHER SE INTO KICT
COUNTRY. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE 3KM SHEAR (BOTH SPEED & DIRECTIONAL) TO
INCREASE TUE NGT THEREBY INCREASING THE SVR TSRA POTENTIAL ALONG WITH AN
OBVIOUSLY INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR +RA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD ARRIVE FRI NGT WHEN THE NEXT MID
LVL SHORTWAVE SPRINTS SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...KS. THE SHORTWAVE WOULD
BRING YET ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO KICT COUNTRY. AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO ~30%. IF MID-RANGE MODELS PROVE CONSISTENT IN
HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES THE TSRA CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

HRRR MODEL AND SHORT TERM DEEP MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE INDICATE
MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO
+TSRA AT CNU AND VCTS AT ICT FOR NOW. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IF THIS WILL SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT.
OTHER DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER SUN
PM/EVE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT COMING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SUBTROPICAL MOIST AXIS. THERE WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
RECENT AND ONGOING STORMS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  94  74  98 /  70  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      72  94  73  98 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          70  93  72  97 /  80  30  20  10
ELDORADO        72  92  72  98 /  80  30  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  92  75  99 /  70  30  20  10
RUSSELL         71  95  70  97 /  30  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      72  95  70  98 /  50  20  20  10
SALINA          73  94  72  99 /  70  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       72  94  72  97 /  70  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  93  72  98 /  70  40  40  10
CHANUTE         72  92  71  97 /  70  50  40  20
IOLA            72  92  72  97 /  70  50  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  93  71  97 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-212245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
540 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH...WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND
GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH...REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL AND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH BOTH POSSIBLE.
FORECASTS ISSUED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THRU NEXT FRIDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH.

HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AROUND 105 ALONG...AND SOUTHEAST...OF THE
TURNPIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 103 ARE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE
NEIGHBORHOOD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER VALUES FOUND IN
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
727 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

KSZ099-210100-
MONTGOMERY-
727 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELK CITY...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SEDAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9572 3718 9573 3716 9596 3739 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 260DEG 11KT 3727 9590

PEARCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1044 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE NEODESHA           37.44N 95.66W
07/20/2013  M3.11 INCH       WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURES 3.11 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR.

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

KSZ092-093-210430-
COWLEY-SUMNER-
1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COWLEY AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GEUDA SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 9695 3712 9681 3706 9720 3725 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 245DEG 15KT 3719 9714

BILLINGS

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