Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND MESO/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH IMPACT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE IMPETUS INTO THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HINGE ON POTENTIAL COLD POOL
AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOWS...WHICH COULD DRIVE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE ELEVATED SEVERE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS GUSTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING TEMPERATURE TRENDS...SHOWING BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF RETROGRADES WEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PORTION OF THE PLAINS. THIS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO MODEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY MID-WEEK.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
AND HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE STRONG GUSTS IN THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KHUT AND KICT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KICT COULD IN FACT HAVE
STRONGER GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BASED ON SOME OF THE RECEIVED
REPORTS AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A
GREATER LENGTH OF TIME. AFTER THE MAIN LINE PUSHES THROUGH...THERE IS
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT WHICH HAS PROMPTED THESE CHANCES
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE MENTIONED SITES. TIMING
HAS BEEN DELAYED FOR KCNU AND THE SEVERITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG
GIVEN THE CURRENT PROPAGATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AFTER THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH AND BE ABOUT 10KT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  94  66  89 /  70  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  94  65  88 /  50   0  10  10
NEWTON          70  93  64  87 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        70  93  63  87 /  70  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  94  65  90 /  70  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  95  63  88 /  20   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  63  88 /  20   0  10  10
SALINA          69  94  65  88 /  30   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  64  88 /  50   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  93  66  88 /  50  20  10   0
CHANUTE         71  92  63  86 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            71  91  63  86 /  60  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  92  64  88 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
230 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 112 DEGREES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
SEVERE RISK IS LOW...A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/JMB/ES

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