Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY MOIST PBL WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO RETURN WEST WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEAK H10-H85 CONVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS LOW AS THE
WEAK LLJ FOCUS APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD KEEP THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

AFTER A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...A POST-FRONTAL STABLE REGIME IS ANTICIPATED EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAINTAINED LOW POPS CENTERED ON MID-WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA BEFORE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CEN KS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CEN KS.  EXPECT THIS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS CEN AND SOUTH CEN KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO THE SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CEN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS ACROSS CEN OK AT
THIS TIME.  SO SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT AIR IS LOCATED
WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF
LOCATIONS FOR THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY...WITH VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED.  WILL GO WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS AND A TEMPO -TSRA GROUP FOR
THE KCNU TAF AS INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER THIS AREA FOR A
FEW ROUND OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z/SAT-02Z/SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  89  67  86 /  40  20  80  20
HUTCHINSON      69  90  67  86 /  40  40  80  10
NEWTON          70  89  67  85 /  40  20  80  10
ELDORADO        70  88  67  85 /  40  20  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  89  68  86 /  30  20  80  30
RUSSELL         68  90  65  86 /  40  40  80  10
GREAT BEND      68  90  65  85 /  40  40  80  10
SALINA          69  90  66  86 /  40  30  60  10
MCPHERSON       69  89  66  86 /  40  30  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  88  68  85 /  50  30  80  50
CHANUTE         70  88  67  84 /  60  30  70  50
IOLA            70  87  67  84 /  60  30  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  68  84 /  60  30  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

MWM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
458 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ049-152245-
SALINE-
458 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SALINE COUNTY...

AT 457 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROOKVILLE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF SALINA...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 9755 3866 9772 3877 9789 3891 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 305DEG 14KT 3879 9779

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
522 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ032-048-152300-
ELLSWORTH-RUSSELL-
522 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLSWORTH AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DORRANCE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF RUSSELL...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 9862 3887 9847 3887 9832 3870 9823
      3873 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 271DEG 16KT 3881 9854

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ032-047-048-152330-
BARTON-ELLSWORTH-RUSSELL-
556 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON...ELLSWORTH AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF DORRANCE...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD
THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9837 3861 9838 3864 9867 3879 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 273DEG 16KT 3872 9858