River Flood Warning 47, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
707 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION SECTION.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH...AS IT
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH INTO AREA WORKED OVER BY SOUTHERN MCS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED UPPER
WAVE IN THE SUB-TROPICAL PLUME OVER ARIZONA...WITH A SECOND UPPER
WAVE ON ITS HEELS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE
FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL GET
ACTIVITY GOING OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD AND BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHERE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT'S SETUP HAS MORE BACK-BUILD/TRAINING
CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAINTAINING ITS FOCUS
UPSTREAM FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS A MUCH
BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE AREA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER
KANSAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A LULL POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
UPPER WAVE INDUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER WAVE COULD KEEP ACTIVITY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THINGS LOOKING TO FINALLY WIND DOWN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS QUIET FOR SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS MOVING ALONG I-70 THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL REINFORCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST
LOCATIONS.  AFTER THIS COMPLEX MOVES EAST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AFTER 01-02Z FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
TSRA MOVES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  71  80  67 /  30  90  90  70
HUTCHINSON      84  69  77  66 /  40  90  90  70
NEWTON          85  68  78  66 /  30  90  90  70
ELDORADO        86  70  80  67 /  30  90  90  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  73  84  69 /  20  90  80  60
RUSSELL         80  66  76  64 /  70  90  80  70
GREAT BEND      81  67  76  65 /  60  90  80  70
SALINA          84  67  76  65 /  40  90  80  70
MCPHERSON       84  68  77  65 /  40  90  90  70
COFFEYVILLE     93  75  88  70 /  20  80  80  50
CHANUTE         89  72  82  67 /  20  80  90  50
IOLA            88  72  81  66 /  20  80  90  50
PARSONS-KPPF    90  73  85  69 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
426 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-080930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
426 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WINDS UP TO 60
MPH POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TONIGHT...AS
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD
WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

COUNTY FLOOD AND RIVER WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ONLY
WORSEN ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR
MORE DETAILS.

IN ADDITION...AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY IF
NOT LONGER. PLEASE WATCH FOR UPDATED FLOOD AND RIVER WARNING
STATEMENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR HEAVY
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
523 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ032-071130-
RUSSELL-
523 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 520 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF NATOMA...OR 27 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9849 3878 9849 3876 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 292DEG 23KT 3915 9918

KETCHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ032-033-071245-
LINCOLN-RUSSELL-
640 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 634 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF LUCAS...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 9795 3888 9794 3889 9871 3912 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 276DEG 19KT 3905 9860

KETCHAM