Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

653 
WWUS83 KICT 112033
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

KSZ032-047-112145-
/O.CAN.KICT.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T0000Z/
RUSSELL-BARTON-
233 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032 AND 047...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS LIMITED STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AND KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM FALLING OFF.
SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY-MONDAY...SOUTHEAST KS SNOW
CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY-THURSDAY.

WILL GO AHEAD AND NIX THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...AS SOMEWHAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAS ENCROACHED FROM THE SOUTH.

A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
TODAY...RESULTING IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED STRONG PRESSURE FALLS WILL RESULT IN STOUT/GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...LIKELY STRONGEST
WEST OF I-135...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM-7PM.
CONTEMPLATED EXPANDING INTO EASTERN KS...BUT RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSEQUENT LESS DEEP MIXING HEIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE. THE DEEP/THICK ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS.

OTHERWISE...A 2ND PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...INTERACTING WITH A STALLED
TIGHT/DEEP FRONTAL ZONE TO POSSIBLY BRING SOME WINTERY PRECIPITATION
TO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. THE LATEST NAM KEEPS THE BEST MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A NARROW SWATH. FALLING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
A VERY DRY SUB-700MB LAYER...BUT THINKING STRENGTH OF FRONTOGENESIS
AND NAM/GFS PROGGED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO KEEP 40-50
POPS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS. IF THE NAM COMES AROUND TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED.

OTHERWISE...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY-MONDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
EAST...AND REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SHOOT SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS WESTERN CONUS RIDGING BY EARLY-MID WEEK...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEEKS END.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KICK A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK...BUT IT HAS CONSISTENTLY REMAINED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN BEYOND
TOMORROW NIGHT.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY IN CONCERT WITH FALLING
RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH BORDER-LINE EXTREME FIRE DANGER
GENERALLY WEST OF I-135. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ON MAGNITUDE OF
DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
I-135...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS...SO
HELD OFF ON RED FLAG WARNING. NEVERTHELESS...OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD
BE AVOIDED TODAY.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...

DESPITE COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...RECORD WARM LOWS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S...THINKING ALL SITES WILL FALL SHORT OF RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  27  38  19 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  24  35  16 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          64  26  36  17 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        65  29  38  18 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  32  41  20 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         60  18  29  12 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      60  20  32  13 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          61  22  32  16 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       63  23  34  16 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  39  42  22 /  10  10  30  40
CHANUTE         65  36  41  20 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            64  35  40  20 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    65  38  42  20 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-121000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
400 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 7 AM GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. BORDER-LINE EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. PLEASE AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ADK