Frost Advisory 4, NWS Wichita, KS

277 
WWUS73 KICT 160743
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013


KSZ032-033-047-048-161400-
/O.CON.KICT.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-131016T1400Z/
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUSSELL...LINCOLN...GREAT BEND...
ELLSWORTH
243 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURES...EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
  MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW
  LYING AND RURAL AREAS. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED
  IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

JAKUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

TONIGHT-THU: A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FALL SEASON TO SPREAD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CEN
KS TONIGHT...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS DROP INTO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THINK
THIS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
COULD ALSO SEE SOME WIDESPREAD FROST AS WELL. SO WILL GO WITH
FROST ADVISORY FOR CEN KS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THINK MOST OF THE FROSTY
AREAS WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
WED OVER THE TOP OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED AFTN/EVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
IS VERY LIMITED...SO EVEN WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE...THINK A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE CHANCE...AT BEST...MAY
OCCUR ACROSS SRN KS AT THIS IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS. SO WILL MENTION
THIS FOR SRN KS AREA FOR WED.

THU-FRI: AN UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ON
THU INTO FRI...WHICH WILL DROP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE SRN
PLAINS WILL TRY TO COME NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT LATEST
GFS/ECMWF MODELS KEEPS THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS OK/TX. WITH THIS IN MIND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT...UNTIL IT POSSIBLY MAKES IT INTO SRN KS. 850-700H
MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO OK ON FRI...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO A POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST OF SRN KS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING FOR THIS...BUT
EXPECTING MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN AS LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY...BUT A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE WED SYSTEM.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THE DEEPENING HUDSON BAY LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS IN DRY
NW FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY PLEASANT FALL
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT DECREASES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  60  41  67 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      37  58  40  67 /   0  10  10   0
NEWTON          37  58  40  66 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        38  59  40  67 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  60  40  68 /   0  20  10   0
RUSSELL         34  60  39  65 /   0  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      35  60  38  65 /   0  10  10   0
SALINA          37  59  40  67 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       37  59  40  67 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  61  41  67 /   0  20  20   0
CHANUTE         39  59  41  67 /   0  10  20   0
IOLA            39  59  41  67 /   0  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  60  41  67 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
501 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
501 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ