Flood Watch 2, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A 110+ KT
H3 JET MAX WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK AND RICH MOISTURE TO RETURN
TO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING REMAIN BUT BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG A RETREATING DRYLINE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHERN...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN ONGOING DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF HEATING MAY LIMIT THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL AND TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WILL KEEP A HEAVILY WORDED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROGS.

THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 06Z ALTHOUGH CONTINUED H7
WAA/300-315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TONIGHT AND AN ADDITIONAL 2-4+ INCHES POSSIBLE WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND
180 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO LOCATIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR MODE...BUT ABUNDANT BUOYANCY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SATURDAY...BREEZY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

MWM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS MAINTAIN TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...ONE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS. A
SECOND ONE ACROSS CENTRAL KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND COULD PERSIST IN SOUTHEAST
KS THURSDAY MORNING. ANY OF THE STORMS OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR/EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR THE I-135 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD INCREASE THURS EVE WITH 50
KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
DEVELOPING. PILOTS WILL WANT TO AVOID THESE STORMS AT ALL
COST...AS THEY COULD CONTAIN HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  67  84  59 /  50  40  40  30
HUTCHINSON      82  65  83  56 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          80  64  82  56 /  40  40  40  30
ELDORADO        80  67  83  58 /  50  50  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  68  85  60 /  50  50  40  50
RUSSELL         81  57  81  53 /  30  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      82  59  82  53 /  30  20  20  10
SALINA          81  63  82  55 /  50  30  30  20
MCPHERSON       81  64  83  56 /  40  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     79  67  82  65 /  60  60  50  90
CHANUTE         78  67  81  63 /  70  70  60  70
IOLA            78  67  80  62 /  70  70  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    78  67  82  64 /  60  60  50  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-310300-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
958 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE
I-135 AND I-35 CORRIDOR FOR STORM INITIATION. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVE
EASTWARD...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION
SOME STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO THE
MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ092-093-300500-
COWLEY-SUMNER-
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COWLEY AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILOCCO...OR 24
MILES SOUTH OF WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9746 3747 9748 3747 9653 3699 9652
      3699 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 220DEG 32KT 3694 9692

BILLINGS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
213 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

KSZ083-092-300745-
SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
213 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONWAY SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
WELLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY
AND BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 9774 3774 9732 3759 9715 3749 9715
      3723 9759
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 228DEG 35KT 3737 9758

ES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

KSZ052-301015-
MARION-
320 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 319 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNDRIDGE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MCPHERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9694 3812 9696 3812 9715 3818 9716
      3818 9737 3837 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 269DEG 22KT 3821 9757

COOK