Flood Watch 1, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

CONVECTION
PRE AND POST FRONTAL STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE HIGHER IMPACT SEVERE IS STILL EXPECTED
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE COLD AIR WILL
STILL SUPPORT SOME HAILERS FURTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO REDEVELOP AND
REPEAT/TRAIN OVER SOME AREAS WHICH PORTENDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE LONGER DURATION APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.

WINTRY PRECIP
NEXT CHALLENGE IS WITH THE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT
QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS LAST WEEK...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL GET
A TRANSIENT AREA OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE NAM PREFERRED IN THIS REGARD. DEPENDING ON CHANGEOVER AND
MOISTURE DEPTH/LIFT...THIS COULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOR NOW ANY ACCUMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THAT SAID...THIS IN COMBO WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP COULD BE OBSERVED AS
FAR EAST AS THE FLINT HILLS INTO LATER THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO A BIT ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN SO OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE EXPECTED.

FREEZE/RECORD COLD THURSDAY NIGHT
THE THIRD CONCERN IS WITH RECORD COLD AND WIDESPREAD FREEZE
EXPECTED. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PURE COLD ADVECTION TYPE WITH
MINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCALES DESPITE A BIT
OF NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING WIND. CONSIDERED A HEADLINE/WATCH
FOR THIS...HOWEVER WITH THE OTHER MORE IMMINENT IMPACTS IN
THE SHORTER TERM HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND MAINTAIN MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER IF CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH...A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN
THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO.

SOME MODERATION AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MADE ONLY A SLIGHT UPTWEAK TO THE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

SINCE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON SHORT TERM DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST.
MEDIUM RANGE STILL SUPPORTS ANOTHER COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING ALL SITES.

LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHALLOW
COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO
MVFR. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME A COLD FRONT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...IMPACTING KCNU THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35MPH. THIS WILL IMPACT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU...BUT KRSL/KSLN
WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR.

BILLINGS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A DRYING PROCESS
WILL BEGIN INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  43  28  56 / 100  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      32  41  27  56 /  90  30   0   0
NEWTON          33  41  27  54 / 100  40   0   0
ELDORADO        34  43  28  55 / 100  40   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  45  29  59 / 100  40   0   0
RUSSELL         29  40  24  56 /  90  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      29  40  25  56 /  90  30   0   0
SALINA          32  41  26  55 / 100  50   0   0
MCPHERSON       32  40  26  56 / 100  40   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     45  49  31  58 / 100  60  10   0
CHANUTE         44  46  30  56 / 100  60  10   0
IOLA            43  45  30  56 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    45  48  30  56 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1039 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181545-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1039 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WITH UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A
FEW TORNADOES...HAIL LARGER THAN 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS
GREATER THAN 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY EAST
OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 99.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...PRIMARILY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW...WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
221 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSZ032-047-171945-
BARTON-RUSSELL-
221 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUSANK...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF GREAT
BEND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9899 3913 9848 3850 9857 3850 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 207DEG 45KT 3863 9883

LAWSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
251 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             6 SSE WESTFALL          38.86N 97.96W
04/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KRC