Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT: ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) CONTINUES
TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO MOST OF CEN AND SOUTH CEN KS
AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
THE WRN SIDE OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH WILL KEEP BACK BUILDING OF THE
SHOWERS GOING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ONGOING SO WILL KEEP FOOD WATCH GOING WITH LOTS OF RIVER
FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN HOW THE THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL
WORK OUT...AS MORNING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESO-HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE WHERE CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.  GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ELEVATED
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THE BEST...SO WILL USE IT FOR THE BASIS FOR THE
FORECAST. GFS SHOWS 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...POINTING INTO CEN KS.  AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO SHIFT NE INTO NE KS LATE TNGT OR EARLY
ON MON. SO THINKING BULK OF CONVECTION CHANCES TNGT WILL BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW. SO WILL NOT
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO MON GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED.

MON-TUE: CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT
IS LOW AS WELL. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES CAPPED ACROSS
SOUTH CEN KS. 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO LOOKS TO PUSH FURTHER
NORTH AS WELL...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL STORM CHANCES
ALONG OR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB. SO WILL KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR NOW...BUT MOST PLACES MAY REMAIN DRY ON MON/TUE. THE
WARMER AIR AND SW FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

TUE NIGHT-WED: A SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BACK ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
RENEWED CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SRN KS.

THU-FRI: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON PLACEMENT OF
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO NRN
OK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CEN KS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LEAVING
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE CEN KS
REMOVED FROM THE POPS WITH LATER RUNS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS MORNING AND COULD LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BY LUNCH
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  72  95  73 /  70  30  20  20
HUTCHINSON      87  70  93  70 /  70  30  20  20
NEWTON          83  69  92  71 /  70  30  20  20
ELDORADO        83  71  92  72 /  70  40  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  73  96  73 /  80  30  20  20
RUSSELL         85  69  91  71 /  50  20  20  40
GREAT BEND      86  69  91  70 /  50  30  20  30
SALINA          82  70  91  72 /  70  40  20  40
MCPHERSON       85  70  93  71 /  70  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     82  73  93  74 /  70  60  20  20
CHANUTE         79  71  91  72 /  70  70  30  30
IOLA            79  71  90  72 /  70  70  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    79  72  92  72 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1016 AM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051530-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1016 AM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY. THE MAIN RISK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. NUMEROUS FLASH
FLOOD AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING
STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE WARNINGS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FLOODING FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE ONGOING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 100 ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND COULD EXCEED 105
DEGREES MONDAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
913 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GREAT BEND              38.36N 98.81W
08/04/2013  M4.49 INCH       BARTON             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
931 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREAT BEND              38.36N 98.81W
08/04/2013                   BARTON             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ANTELOPE CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS 3/4 MILE EAST OF US
            HIGHWAY 281 AND SE 20 ROAD INTERSECTION.

&&

COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
957 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     FLOOD            4 NW CLEARWATER         37.55N 97.55W
08/04/2013                   SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS RURAL AND COUNTY ROADS WATER COVERED ALONG
            NINNESCAH RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES UPSTREAM FROM CLEARWATER

&&

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     FLOOD            DOWNTOWN WICHITA        38.85N 98.59W
08/04/2013                   RUSSELL            KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTY REMAIN FLOODED WITH ROADS
            CLOSED.

&&

COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1002 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     FLOOD            4 SE SALINA             38.77N 97.57W
08/04/2013                   SALINE             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HOBBS CREEK ROAD CLOSED.

0927 AM     FLOOD            MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
08/04/2013                   MCPHERSON          KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL ROADS STILL CLOSED ACROSS MCPHERSON COUNTY.

&&

COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE LYONS              38.29N 98.14W
08/04/2013                   RICE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATIONS ALONG COW CREEK DUE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATER.

&&

COOK