Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT IS ONGOING IN THE MISS/TN VALLEY REGIONS
CURRENTLY...WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF A QLCS FEATURE AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. UNUSUALLY WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP IS LEADING TO CAPE VALUES ARND
250 J/KG...NOT TOO BAD FOR AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE JANUARY.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THIS LATE
HOUR (AT 3 AM...MUSCLE SHOALS IS JUST 3 DEGREES SHY OF ITS RECORD
HIGH FOR THE DAY). NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ HAS ALLOWED
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO REACH VALUES ARND 60 KTS...KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW/UPR LEVEL SUPPORT...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP AND RECENT RADAR EVIDENCE...SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TIMING FOR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS HAS BEEN FORECAST WELL...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN LINE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-65
CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 6 AM CST...AND THE AL/GA BORDER BY ABOUT 9 AM.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SUSTAINED WINDS ARND 25
MPH WITH GUSTS ARND 35-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON. BEHIND THIS LINE IN
THE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TEMPORARILY. THIS LULL IN WIND ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS
OR MORE AS A COMPLEX DOUBLE TROF IN THE PRESSURE FIELD MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. BEHIND THE 2ND TROF AND POLAR FRONT...THE NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY
BE MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INITIALLY
ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES WITH THE INITIAL PACIFIC FRONT...BUT WILL FALL
FURTHER BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT TONIGHT. LOWS ARND FREEZING ARE
POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING. ALONG WITH THE FALLING TEMPS...ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO GENERATE LGT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN
NERN AREAS BETWEEN 6-12 PM CST.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE
MAXIMA ROTATE ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR THE TROUGH TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...SHALLOW MOISTURE/LIFT MAY
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT DUSTING MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AREAS.

AS THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH TENDS TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL MODERATE WHILE
QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGES DROP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TEMPORARILY ON
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. POPS WERE RAISED ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

THE MAIN LINE OF TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF MSL TERMINAL EARLIER THIS
MORNING. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR WITH MODERATE RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT
CIGS OR VSBYS DROPPING BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR AT TIME THROUGH 30/14Z
WITH +RA. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS AT KHSV..CIGS
ARE ALSO MVFR...TWO LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT KHSV
BETWEEN NOW 14Z. PREDOMINATELY LOW END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS OR VSBYS COULD OCCUR. AFTER 14Z AT KMSL AND
15ZZ AT KHSV CIGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH END MVFR AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
612 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

ALZ006-009-TNZ096-097-301300-
MADISON AL-JACKSON AL-LINCOLN TN-FRANKLIN TN-
612 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AT 611 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST
OF SEWANEE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWENS CROSSROADS...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WINCHESTER TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF REDSTONE
ARSENAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINCHESTER...MOORES MILL...MERIDIANVILLE...HAZEL GREEN...DECHERD...
NEW MARKET...COWAN...OWENS CROSSROADS...HUNTLAND AND GURLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8586 3505 8586 3457 8646 3484 8673
      3525 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 250DEG 20KT 3518 8594 3453 8661

TT

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