Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
850 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPDATED HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL OVERNIGHT MCS INSTIGATED BY MODERATE-STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
IN LOW TO MID LEVELS IS SHIFTING SEWD. REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA PERSISTS ALONG THIS ZONE OVER N AL AND SRN TN. 12Z
RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS BMX TO OHX ALONG
WHICH THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE REFIRING ON. THE NEXT MCS OVER THE
MID SOUTH WAS ADVANCING S AND SE THRU NERN AR, WRN TN INTO NRN MS.
DECENT HEATING AND INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE OVER NWRN / NC AL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST AND EXPAND THIS
MORNING. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30KT ALONG WITH
PROJECTED CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL ENABLE A LOW RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THRU THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO UPGRADE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREATS IN THE UPDATED HWO.

KULA
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...ONE BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES DUE TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER UPPER
WAVES THAT ARE CAUGHT UP IN NW FLOW (OVER THE MIDWEST) THAT COULD
AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z WITH MORE
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THAT BY 20Z...THE CHC OF PCPN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THESE UPPER WAVES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
MODELS ALSO HINT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES ARND 12Z WEDNESDAY MRNG. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND
SFC CDFNT APPROACHING THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN
TAFS AFTER 21Z.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
828 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-232130-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
828 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
THE START OF THE EVENING PERIOD WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE TODAY.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TNZ076-096-097-231100-
MOORE TN-LINCOLN TN-FRANKLIN TN-
519 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 517 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE AND HUNTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8628 3500 8625 3499 8651 3499 8672
      3517 8671
TIME...MOT...LOC 1017Z 274DEG 14KT 3508 8663

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
832 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TNZ096-231400-
LINCOLN TN-
832 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 900
AM CDT...

AT 830 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF ARDMORE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE
PARENT THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8679 3517 8644 3499 8656 3499 8659
      3511 8683 3526 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 294DEG 19KT 3516 8680

KULA

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