Wind Advisory 7, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SOME STRONGER WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HEMPSTEAD TO
RICHMOND TO FREEPORT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE WAIT FOR THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.
SOME OF OUR AREA'S STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG
OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA (ROUGHLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) WHERE THE CAP HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
BROKEN. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY AND THE FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH...THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A NICE FRIDAY.  42
&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS ARE NOT MIXING TO THE SURFACE IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND WINDS/SEAS ARE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AM STILL
EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND SWELLS WILL EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. AM NOT COMFORTABLE DROPPING
THE SCA AND THEN RE-ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT SO WILL LET THE ADVISORY
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS RIDE.

RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AROUND FISHING
PIERS AND JETTYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013/

AVIATION...
SE WINDS 12-18KTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS TODAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE
BROKEN UP AND GONE SCATTERED BUT WITH A LITTLE HEATING THIS
MORNING EXPECT CIGS TO COME BACK IN BRIEFLY THEN SCATTER OUT AGAIN
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD COME BACK IN
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. KEYING ON A SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT AND AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD VCSH TO THE TERMINALS
IN THE UPCOMING PACKAGE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z FOR CLL-
IAH SOUTHWARD. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEAR SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE NEARING CLL
AROUND 19-20Z AND IAH/HOU AREAS 21-00Z WED. SOME CAPPING MIGHT
HAMPER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE BUT FROM I-10 AREA NORTHEAST
LOOKS PRIMED.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM TOMORROW. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINTING TO A RATHER ACTIVE DAY WEDS AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS A-
CROSS THE REGION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR SE TX...ALONG WITH VERY FAVORABLE JET DY-
NAMICS ALOFT. BUT THAT BEING SAID...SOME (BUT NOT ALL) OF THESE
FACTORS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE EVENT. WORST CASE SCENARIO
HAS ALL OF THIS COALESCING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX AOA LATE MORN-
ING/AFTN THEN INTO SE TX AOA LATE AFTN/EVE. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE GENERAL TSTM CATEGORY FOR TODAY THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDS.
HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE FOR WEDS. THE UPCOM-
ING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

FCST FOR THE AFTERMATH DOES HINT THAT ANOTHER QUICK STRIKE S/WV
OVER THE WEEKEND COULD KEEP CLOUDS/COOLER WX IN THE MIX. THERE-
AFTER WE LOOK TO WARM/MOISTEN UP FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES AND ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL AT
THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT A PROBABLY MAYBE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  70  73  45  67 /  20  30  80  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  70  80  49  70 /  10  20  70  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  70  75  55  72 /  10  20  60  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
     FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
738 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-101245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
738 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY JUST
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
STORM SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN ORGANIZING AND STRENGTHENING
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO THE WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT
WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-101245-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
738 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE BAYS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.