Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO BURLESON AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LINE THAT MOVED EAST FROM WEST TEXAS AND WEAKENED. THINKING
IS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEAKEN
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE NORTH OF I-10 WHERE THE GREATER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. MOST AREAS STILL SHOULD SEE RAIN TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN KANSAS MOVES OFF THE
NORTHEAST DRAGGING A DRYLINE AND FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH
CLEARING COMMENCING MONDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE LOCATIONS SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND CONROE POSSIBLY HITTING THE
FREEZING MARK. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

23

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 10 FEET AT 42019 HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING BUT WILL BE
CONTINUING THE SCA FOR GULF WATERS THROUGH 06Z/11 AND WILL LIKELY
NEED EXTENDING. SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE BAYS WITH A WINDOW FOR SCA
CONDITIONS ON MATAGORDA BAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND 6 PM AS OFFSHORE WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH MOVES DOWN OVER SETX. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWS AND LINGERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SWLA INTO WEDNESDAY
SETTING UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
45

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER ON TAP ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-
20 MPH WITH THE RH DROPPING TO 20 TO 27 PERCENT OVER A LARGE AREA OF
SETX. FUELS WILL GET A GOOD (MUCH NEEDED) WETTING TODAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IF RAINS END UP LIGHTER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF .25-.50" WILL
PROBABLY END UP NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. AT PRESENT WOULD BE
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE AREAS SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS TO FREEPORT LINE
FOR MORE LIKELY AREA IN NEED. AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY BE THE
OPTIMAL TIME FOR ISSUANCE.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 11R-
UTS-OCH LINE WITH IFR CIGS IN VCNTY. SOUTH OF THIS SWATH SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND MVFR/VFR CIGS. SWATH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHERN END MAY EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CXO/IAH AREAS
(APPROXIMATELY 13-16Z) SO HAVE UPDATED TAFS WITH THIS TIMING.
WINDS BECOMING NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRA/TSRA THEN SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
BECOME VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY 18-20Z AND SHRA DEPARTING OFF
TO THE EAST.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  37  62  36  71 /  70  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  44  63  38  71 /  80  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  48  61  46  67 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...45

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
527 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

TXZ163-164-176-101145-
MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
527 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 522 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A PAIR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTERVILLE...OR
18 MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...LOVELADY...KENNARD...MIDWAY AND LATEXO.

LAT...LON 3150 9509 3149 9511 3147 9510 3144 9501
      3139 9495 3134 9496 3132 9490 3129 9489
      3093 9597 3109 9591 3110 9577 3113 9578
      3116 9573 3120 9575 3127 9573 3132 9566
      3136 9567 3156 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1022Z 243DEG 42KT 3117 9575

!KP!

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