Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING SE INTO THE REGION HAS TAPPED
INTO REMAINING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. SUSPECT THESE WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND ASSOCIATED STORMS
WILL PROBABLY COLLIDE WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS EVENING FOR FURTHER
BRIEF ENHANCEMENT. AS WE SAW THE OTHER DAY...ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS TYPE SCENARIO. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECLINE TOWARD MID
EVENING.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND LOOKS LIKE IT IS ALREADY DRAWING SOME OF THE
MID/UPPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE YUCATAN. THAT BEING
SAID...THE LLVL CIRCULATION IS BEING LEFT EXPOSED WELL TO THE SW
AND WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. IN ORDER FOR SOMETHING TROPICAL TO
DEVELOP WE'LL NEED TO GET SOME SUSTAINED CONVECTION GOING AROUND
THE LLVL CENTER AND IF/WHEN THAT'LL HAPPEN IS QUITE QUESTIONABLE.
LOOKING AT W/V IMAGERY...THERE IS A LOT OF MID/UPPER DRY AIR FROM
WHERE THE CIRCULATION IS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WHICH DOESN'T
PROVE FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY ANOTHER SEPARATE CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP FURTHER THE
NE BUT WE'RE JUST START PLAYING THE "WHAT-IF" GAME AT THIS POINT.
FWIW...HIGHER WIND WILL PROBABLY BE ENCOUNTERED FURTHER
N W/ TIME. BOTTOM LINE REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT - WE'LL
JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF A SUSTAINED & BETTER DEFINED LLVL
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS.

SO THE FCST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH. WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW
ECMWF SENSIBLE WX SOLN IN THE MEANTIME WHICH SHOWS A DRY WEEKEND
UNTIL WAVE AXIS & DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION MON
& TUE. WILL INCREASE POPS OFFSHORE & CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING
THAT PERIOD. TROF/WAVE/SYSTEM (AGAIN...ACCORDING TO ECMWF) SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SLIDE WWD INTO MEXICO UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE THEN SHIFTS INTO THE CNTL PLAINS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERALLY NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND
RATHER FLAT DOWN HERE. SO THINK DIURNAL ISO/SCT DAILY PRECIP
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OR
JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DETERMINED
MAINLY ON WHETHER ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE...THE CONVECTION TODAY SO FAR HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  96  69  96  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  95  71  95  72 /  50  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  92  78  91  78 /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-172100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE INCOMING STORMS FROM
THE NORTH WILL COLLIDE WITH THE SEABREEZE. PORTIONS OF THE
HOUSTON METRO RUSH HOUR WILL BE AFFECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. PLEASE SUBMIT SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS TO OUR TWITTER ADDRESS @NWSHOUSTON. USE HASHTAGS #HOUWX
AND #TXWX.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-172100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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