River Flood Warning 2, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TRACKING A TRAINING LINE OF RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RAIN RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS
PUTTING DOWN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR AMOUNTS...LOCALLY
OVER TWO INCHES PER HOUR...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HARRIS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. WITH THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL FOCUS OFF TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THIS MORE-SOUTHERN
BASED CONVECTION MOST LIKELY GOT GOING DUE TO THE AREA BEING UNDER
BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WITH A VICINITY JET STREAK AND DECENT
DIFFULENCE PROVIDING THE NEEDED EXHAUST. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO MAY ALSO BE NOSING INTO SE
TX AND PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL LIFT REQUIRED TO INITIATE...OR KEEP
THIS...ONGOING ACTIVITY ALIVE GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LIKELY INLAND POPS WILL TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT...WITH MORE MODERATE...
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT. FEELING IS THAT
CENTRAL CWA AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER AND TAKE TIME TO
RE-CHARGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT RIPPLE HEADING EAST WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. HIGHER OVERNIGHT POPS MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THIS NEAR-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYING JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE ESCARPMENT. TOMORROW'S POPS BASED SOLELY UPON THE ATTEMPT
TO TIME THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THE ELEMENTS THAT INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION/STORMS TODAY WILL
PLAY OUT AGAIN SUNDAY...AMPLE UPPER LIFT WITHIN A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR THE REGENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY. OF COURSE...THERE WILL BE AN EARLY DAY
CAP TO CONTEND WITH AND THIS WILL ALWAYS BE THE DISCLAIMER THAT
LEADS TO THE LOWER POP ARGUMENT. EITHER WAY...OVERCAST AND WARM
WITH PERIODIC RAIN/THUNDER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...OR WHEN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A FEW DAYS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE WARMTH/VERY
MILD OVERNIGHTS...BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLIES. THE MAIN STORY
FOR NEXT WEEK STILL CENTERS AROUND AN EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NWP MODEL ENSEMBLE ALL AGREE THAT THE BACKING AIR
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DRY. AS OF NOW...WITH THE 85H ZERO
LINE TO THE COAST (PER GFS)...IT WOULD BE SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW EARLY MAY MIN TEMP
(OR MIN MAX TEMP) RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN. NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF RAIN LEADING/ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ITS AGGRESSIVE SOUTHEASTERN
PUSH INDICATES THAT THERE IS A MODEST CHANCE THAT THIS TYPE OF
FORCING COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-CELLUAR THIN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP/MOISTURE
BEHAVIOR FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  83  61  82  62 /  60  40  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  82  62  81  61 /  40  50  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  77  66  76  67 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...31/43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-282100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY
FROM THE CITY NORTH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE...OR EVOLVE...
OFF TO THE WEST AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLOODING. THERE MAY ALSO BE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY MAY
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-282100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MARINE FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORIES OR GALE
WATCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ212-213-227-272000-
FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
221 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KATY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL...BROOKSHIRE AND PATTISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

&&

LAT...LON 3013 9558 2981 9544 2976 9597 2981 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 243DEG 14KT 2986 9580

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ213-272115-
HARRIS TX-
335 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 323 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. JERSEY VILLAGE...ALDINE AND SPRING VILLAGE
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A
STORM SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR WEST HOUSTON AIRPORT AT
329 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...ALDINE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...HEDWIG VILLAGE AND HILSHIRE VILLAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2981 9526 2974 9564 2991 9571 3007 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 250DEG 19KT 2986 9560

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
412 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             5 W WOODLOCH            30.22N  95.50W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUATER INCH HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300050

BAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
501 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             8 SSW HOUSTON           29.66N  95.44W
04/27/2013  E0.75 INCH       HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL ACCUM. LIKE SNOW AT WOMANS HOSPITAL OF
            TEXAS

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300051

BAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             2 NE WEST UNIVERSITY PL 29.73N  95.41W
04/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            QUATER SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300052

BAH

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