Gale Warning 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NEW MEX AND SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS W TX/BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE 4 CORNERS/S ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WARM FRONT WAS STILL LOCATED OFF THE TX GULF
COAST AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A MORE ROBUST LINE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG IT. WARM FRONT SHOULD TRACK INLAND TONIGHT SO
TOMORROW MORNING LOW TEMP WILL LIKELY BE AT MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME FOG WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT THINK WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL ONLY HAVE WEAK
INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW CAPPING DUE TO ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AROUND 800MB. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS
MARGINAL GIVEN THE CAP AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
SHEAR YET AGAIN SO IF STORMS CAN BECOME SFC BASED THEY WILL LIKELY
BE ORGANIZED. WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. TX TECH
WRF AND WRF-NMM BOTH SHOW SIMILAR DETAILS WITH A THIN LINE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF ANY STORMS FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE CAP...SUPERCELLS LOOK LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SE TX. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE
STRONG ALONG THE FRONT...PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY TOMORROW
AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OTHER HAZARDS TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN TO WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK LIKE A HIGH PROBABILITY AND WILL GO AHEAD WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AIRMASS SHOULD DRY OUT
SUBSTANTIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL. GALE WARNING FOR MARINE AREAS LOOKS ON TRACK. WINDS MAY
NOT BE SUSTAINED GALE FORCE BUT LIKELY HAVE GUSTS TO 35-40KTS WITH
VERY ROUGH SEAS.

AFTER MONDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. STILL
EXPECTING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO DEVELOP WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL GET A FEW MORE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS TO PASS BY WITHOUT ANY CONSEQUENCE. PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT SUN/MON. SO
THIS MEANS MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS MAY HIT FREEZING IN A FEW SPOTS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE WITH A DRY AIRMASS.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE 18Z TAFS BUT 00Z TAFS MAY NEED
TO BE TWEAKED A BIT GIVEN THE -RA COVERAGE SO FAR THIS AFTN. LATEST
WRF ALSO INDICATING THAT THE PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH OVER-
NIGHT. 41

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TO A GALE WARN-
ING FOR THE SAME AREA ALONG WITH THE BAYS FOR TOMORROW. ALL OF THIS
WILL BE COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT STILL SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT THRU MON. WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO DECREASE JUST AS QUICKLY
TUES. THIS VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN BRING AN-
OTHER COLD FRONT INTO SE TX WEDS MORNING THEN INTO OUR MARINE ZONES
WEDS AFTN. PROGS INDICATE THAT THIS SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT
BRING OFFSHORE WINDS AS STRONG AS THE FIRST ONE. NONETHELESS WE MAY
STILL SEE SCEC CONDITIONS WEDS NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS FCST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AS
WELL AS LOW HUMIDITIES BY MON AFTN. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN IS-
SUED FOR ALL OF SE TX. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KTS...NEAR
35KTS GUSTS FCST FOR MON AFTN AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  66  37  64  38 /  40  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  72  40  65  40 /  30  60  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  47  63  51 /  30  50  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41

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