Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR THE MORNING WAS TO ISSUE WIND HEADLINES
FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA LOA/KEA. SUSTAINED WINDS THERE ALREADY
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW RETREATING TO THE
EAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH COMING IN FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THIS GRADIENT MAXIMIZES TUESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO IN REGARDS TO WIND HEADLINES...THUS FAR TODAY THE STRONG WINDS
HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE WITH ONLY 11G15KT AT SOUTH POINT AND
6G15KT IN KAWAIHAE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TROUGH IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD NE OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 153W THAT WILL BE PASSING
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 32N. THE TROUGH
MAY BE PARTLY THE REASON FOR THE LIGHTER WINDS. ALSO...THE INVERSION
IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE BIG ISLAND...AND THIS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG GAP AND DOWNSLOPE ACCELERATION.

HOWEVER...THE INVERSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LOWER WITH TIME AND
THERE IS ALREADY SOME SEMBLANCE OF IT SHOWING UP IN THE 12Z PHLI
SOUNDING AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM HONOLULU. THUS WE ARE PLANNING TO
CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND GALE WARNING
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS TUESDAY ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL INVERSION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED...AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO HEADLINES
BEYOND TUESDAY FOR NOW. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRADE WINDS
WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXTEND WIND HEADLINES INTO THESE PERIODS AS WE GET CLOSER
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

OTHERWISE...OUR WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE AND BE DRIER THAN
NORMAL AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ISLANDS. A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT LIGHTER WINDS
THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING BREEZIER AGAIN AS THE NEXT HIGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATER FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TO THE SW
AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS OF ALL ISLES...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AIRMET TANGO ALSO INCLUDES
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS AND SHRA MOVING OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITION AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...WE ARE SCALING BACK THE
HEADLINES. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT......WE ARE CANCELLING THE GALE
WARNING AND DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE
WINDIER AREAS. STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.

THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURF ALONG
OTHER SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
NEW NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BOOST SURF
ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM HST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI
CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

R BALLARD/BIRCHARD