Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Honolulu, HI

171 
WWHW80 PHFO 280119
RFWHFO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
319 PM HST TUE AUG 27 2013

HIZ001-003-005>007-009>011-013>016-018-019-021-023-024-026-280230-
/O.CAN.PHFO.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130828T0400Z/
NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-
OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-KOHALA-
319 PM HST TUE AUG 27 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

$$

DEJESUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...
WHILE A DRY...STABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP RAINFALL VERY LIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY DRY AND
LOCALLY BREEZY WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAINTAINS
THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER THE AREA KEEPS
THE ATMOSPHERE DRY AND STABLE.

THE WINDS WILL START TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW AS A TROUGH ALOFT DIGS
TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AS A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS
EAST OF THE ISLANDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF
THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS.
MORE BAND SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER BANDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY BUT MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET DEEP ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS WHILE THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN
LEEWARD AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET MUCH RAIN.

ON FRIDAY RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AND TRADE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN. WE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND
DRY WEATHER AGAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT STARTING TO DIG TOWARD THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY. THAT WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE
WINDS AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS STARTING AROUND NEXT TUESDAY.
IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO BE VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THESE CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TOMORROW...WITH SCA FOR JUST THE USUAL WINDY AREAS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI... WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
A NEW SCA OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE SURF ZONE FORECAST AND
SURF DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE...SO AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 600 AM TUESDAY FOR FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
AND KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS...THE KAUAI CHANNEL...OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS...THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 600 PM TUESDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

DONALDSON