Gale Warning 1, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI JAN 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WET TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH SOME OF THE SHOWERS INTO LEEWARD AREAS AT
TIMES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND
BRINGS CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THEN WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ARE KEEPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ALOHA STATE...ALONG WITH A
PREVAILING WET TRADE WIND REGIME CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY. THE STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS BEYOND THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND INTO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.
LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA SHOW LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THE RAIN COVERAGE WILL PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH AND REACHING THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN OUTSIDE OF WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE N OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN MANY PLACES BY LATER TODAY AND THROUGH SAT...AND MAYBE
EXTENDING INTO SUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
HALEAKALA SUMMIT AREA...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING.

THE WET AND BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH TRADE
SPEEDS DECREASING TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS GFS TRIES TO
PUSH A FROPA ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE ISLANDS STILL
UNDER A TRADE WIND REGIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP FOLLOWING
THE LATER SOLUTION WITH TRADES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY...PEAKING
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS AROUND ADVISORY
LEVELS...THEN GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ADVISORY HAS
NOT BEEN ISSUED YET SINCE FORERUNNERS FROM THE SWELL HAVE NOT BEEN
OBSERVED ON ANY OF THE BUOYS SO FAR.

THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH
AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WITH SURF HEIGHTS
LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS...EXCEPT FOR THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A GALE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STRENGTHENING NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TEMPO
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW 8 KFT S AND W OF THE MTN OF ALL
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN
EFFECT. IN ADDITION...AIRMET TANGO WILL INCLUDE SUSTAINED SFC WSPD
OF 30 KT OR GREATER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SFC HIGH FAR N OF THE STATE STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. THESE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALSO.

BANDS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS CARRIED
BY THE STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...AIRMET SIERRA CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ABOVE 2500 FT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY
FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...HOUSTON