Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Honolulu, HI

979 
WGHW70 PHFO 080731
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
931 PM HST THU NOV 7 2013

HIC003-080740-
/O.CAN.PHFO.FF.W.0053.000000T0000Z-131108T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
931 PM HST THU NOV 7 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY...

WEATHER RADAR AND RAIN GAGES SHOWED THAT THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED 
OVER THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS 
CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 2168 15805 2172 15794 2144 15778 2138 15787

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU NOV 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK ON FRIDAY THEN QUICKLY STRENGTHEN
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY ON
SUNDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE STATE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PERSISTENT RAIN OVER
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
ABOUT 275 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST. AN 80
MPH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER HAWAII.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND BECOME
ENGULFED IN A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND...BUT EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH LOCATED OVER KAUAI IS PROVIDING LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BACKGROUND FLOW. THE SEA BREEZES BROUGHT IN A FEW HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD
DISPERSE TONIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZES. OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING A
DRIER TREND TONIGHT.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY. SOME LEEWARD AREAS
WILL STILL GET AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. IF THE TRADES COME BACK EARLY TOMORROW THIS WILL
SUPPRESS THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.

THE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE MAY BRING WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI.

RAIN WILL ALSO RAMP SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING WITH KAUAI AND
SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS WILL BLOW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS ONTO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING THE FRONT PAST THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY THIS
WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING A THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR NOW. THE HIGH
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MAKE RAINFALL THE BIGGEST ISSUE.

TRADE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING A SECOND ROUND OF PERSISTENT RAIN OVER MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A JET STREAM MAY PRODUCE TURB FROM FL300-FL400...SO AIRMET TANGO
WILL REMAIN POSTED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SHORT-PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL
LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REINFORCE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A LONG-PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTH SWELL WILL SWING AROUND THE NORTHEAST...INCREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CHANNELS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AT A MINIMUM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE TRADE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...DONALDSON