Wind Advisory 6, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
BLUSTERY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR FOLLOWS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES BY THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT
PRESENT MESONET.

AT 06Z...A 996 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
HUDSON BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RACE NORTHEAST AND
DRIVE THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA IN
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW EVIDENT ON KGYX VAD WIND PROFILE. STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD WITH BEST CHANCE
OF BRIEFLY SEEING THE WARM SECTOR LIMITED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN INTERIOR MAINE. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD/
OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
VICINITY OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
I'VE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND WITH THE CONVECTION
FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS EXTREME
NORTHWEST MAINE WITH THE NEW PUBLIC PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. A DRY AND
SEASONABLE DAY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING EAST
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILD IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY CROWDED
OUT TO THE NORTH AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH BY
LATE FRIDAY.

HAVE KEPT THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND THE ENCROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM REMAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT FOR A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY OF FROST AND FOG ARE LIKELY FOR
NORTHERN SECTIONS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS IN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADING
OVER THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS USHERS IN COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR
IN DRIZZLE AND FOG AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 30 KT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. LCL IFR EARLY TUES IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG VICINITY
OF THE CONN VALLEY OTHERWISE IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...SSELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCR
AND REACH SCA CONDS BY MRNG. THE SELY PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
FURTHER DURING THE DAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST TO MINIMAL GALE
TOWARDS EVENING. THE SCA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MINIMAL GALE WITH
THE NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CALM MOST OF THE WEEK UNTIL A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
4-6 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AROUND 1 PM, THE INCREASING SELY
FLOW AND THE PROLONGED FETCH...MAY COMBINE TO PUSH THE 10.7 FT
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TO NEAR 11.5 FT...BUT BELOW THE 12 FT
BENCHMARK SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS DON'T DEVELOP UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER THE HIDE TIDE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

ES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-081015-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
603 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATER
TODAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ153-081015-
CASCO BAY-
603 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>152-154-081015-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
603 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PENOBSCOT BAY...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA...THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ES