Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AND POTENTIALLY SEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT... SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS THERE...BUT SHEAR AND ORGANIZED
FORCING ARE CURRENTLY MINIMAL. MODELS DO SUGGEST STORMS GET BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CLEARING THAT MAY OCCUR WILL LEAD TO FOG AND
LOW STRATUS. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S...WARMEST NEAR
THE COAST AND IN SRN NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY REFLECTING WIND SHIFT AND COOLER
TEMPS...WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING WED. THIS WILL SET OFF
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE HOT AND HUMID SIDE AGAIN...BUT TO THE N AND E COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKS FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT. LOWS MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY OVER NEW
ENGLAND... AND AS A RESULT EXPECT COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE FOG AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST... SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT SHARPENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT... SPREADING RAIN OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW
LATER THIS WEEK. GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW WITH SHARPER FRONTS.
AS A RESULT... IT PUSHES THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... CUTTING OFF THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MUCH
WEAKER AND HANGS IT FURTHER BACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS... EVEN WITH THE GFS SOLUTION... CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND BROADLY DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEPT
POPS AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH STAYS TO OUR WEST AND KEEPS US IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD GENERALLY PUT US IN A WARM AIR MASS... BUT
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. IF THE
DRIER GFS SOLUTION BECOMES REALITY... THEN THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNNY BREAKS AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...TSRA CONTAINING WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS AND LARGE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEN IFR OR LOWER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OVER NIGHT. A LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY INLAND...BUT IFR OR LOWER
RETURNS WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM
VFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS SEAS QUIET THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEVERE TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS INCREASING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...

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