Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
336 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH. WE WILL SWITCH BACK TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER AND CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OF UPSTATE NEW
YORK HAVE MOVED EAST INTO VERMONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
HAMPSHIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION HAS LED TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES OVER 1000 AREAWIDE AND OVER 2000 FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN HAS BEEN CAPPED TODAY AND SURFACE HEATING HAS NOT BEEN
ENOUGH TO DO MORE THAN DEVELOP A FEW FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HOWEVER... WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF
THE HUMID UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK TODAY SO
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. STORMS WILL BE
MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH DOWNBURSTS AND BRIEF LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THEN A WIND
THREAT COULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER... THOUGH A WARNING OR TWO
MIGHT BE NEEDED.

WITH HIGH DEW POINTS OUT THERE... DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUICK TO FALL TONIGHT UNLESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE QUITE BALMY ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THESE AREAS MAY BE
LUCKY TO FALL BELOW 70 TONIGHT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIMITED
HOURS OF COOLING THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE HUMIDITY AROUND... FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHICH SEE EVENING RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HOT AND HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
ONCE AGAIN REACH 90+ ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
THIS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN. BY
AFTERNOON... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO A BETTER WIND FLOW
REGIME SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THIS
CAUSES UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW. IF SEVERE
WEATHER DOES PAN OUT... THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE LIKELY THREATS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A 500MB TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
MID TO LATE WEEK...PUSHING THE RIDGE A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST.
THE MODELS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET UP
BLOCKING...AND HOLD BOTH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEP NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
IN SW FLOW ALOFT THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS
WILL MEAN HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THRU
THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS
THE 500 MB TROUGH DEEPENS AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER UPSTATE
NY. COULD SEE SOME SYNOPTIC FEATURES DEVELOP WITH WAA PRODUCING A
STEADIER OR MORE FREQUENT RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO SHIFT MORE NORTH TO EAST...ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
NORTHERN ZONES...AND ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE A
COOLER PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR WEST LIFTS NORTH AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
WEST. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR FLOW BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...AND ALLOW
FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK IN....WITH GENERALLY SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD
THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY COULD MOVE FURTHER EAST AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE VALLEYS AND
ANY AREA THAT SEES EVENING RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE PERIODS OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ONSHORE DEVELOPS...WITH
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED TO
RETURN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE RULE OUT MORE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG TERM...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND COULD APPROACH SCA
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-251000-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
325 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND HAIL
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-251000-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
325 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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