Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN
STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STAYING JUST BEYOND THE
GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR OUR THREE SOUTHERN MOST NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE CONVECTION WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS INSTABILITY IS
MUCH LOWER. NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT FAIRLY STRONG SPEED
SHEAR WITH WESTERLY WINDS FAIRLY STRONG ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHORT LINES AND BOW ECHOES TO PRODUCE STRONG/POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE...GETTING REPORTS OF PEA
SIZE HAIL IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AS THE EVENING WEARS ON THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OR AT LEAST DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S
SOUTH AS WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE SYSTEMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SOUTH WHILE
COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE
PATTERN BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIT IN THE LONGWAVE SOLUTION...THE
MODEL SUITE DOES ADVERTISE A MEAN JET LOCATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WHICH ALSO SERVES TO INCREASE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE
EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG LOWERING TO IFR OR MAYBE LOCALLY TO LIFR. VFR ON TUESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AREAS THEN
IMPROVING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

FRI...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4
FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>006-009-010-181730-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
125 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

NHZ007-008-013-014-181730-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
125 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

ANZ150>154-181730-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
125 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.

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