Alert archive / Guam / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Guam

September 18, 2013

NWS Guam issued this flash flood warning at Sep 18, 2013, 10:10 PM CDT. It was in force for 13 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 18, 2013, 10:10 PM CDT (03:10 UTC)
Expired: Sep 19, 2013, 10:57 AM CDT
In force: 13 hr
Issued by: NWS Guam
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 18, 3:33 PM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 18, 3:33 PM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
633 AM CHST THU SEP 19 2013

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES ESE OF SAIPAN
NEAR 14N148E...MOVING VERY LITTLE. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE MARIANAS. SATELLITE-
DERIVED OCEAN SURFACE WINDS WERE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 KT SOUTH OF
GUAM AT MIDNIGHT CHST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING 98W. UKMET
AND ECMWF DEVELOP WHAT AMOUNTS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
MARIANAS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS YANKS THE CIRCULATION AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
DEVELOPS. BUT BOTH SCENARIOS BRING 20-25 KT WEST WINDS TO GUAM AND
ROTA WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRI WITH LESS WIND ACROSS TINIAN/SAIPAN.
ALSO...LOTS OF SHOWERS THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF THE TWO
EUROPEAN MODELS ARE CORRECT. BUT ALL THE MODELS KEEP A MONSOON
TROUGH AROUND FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...SO LOOKS WET FOR A WHILE.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
GFS BRINGS IN 20-25 KT WINDS WITH WIND WAVES RISING TO 8 FEET
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR GUAM AND ROTA WATERS...AND WAVE GUIDANCE BRINGS
IN 10-FT SEAS FOR GUAM/ROTA AS WELL. HAVE RE-ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVY FOR BOTH SEAS AND WINDS FOR GUAM AND ROTA WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH SURF SITUATION IS STILL MARGINAL THIS MORNING...BUT
SEAS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MARIANAS WATERS...SO HIGH SURF STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI TOWARDS THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF SAIPAN...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR WAKE ISLAND. TRADE WINDS ARE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DATE LINE EAST OF THE RIDGE OVER MICRONESIA.
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE DATE LINE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AT MAJURO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE WILL REACH KOSRAE
ON FRIDAY...AND POHNPEI BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DRY
OUT AT MAJURO FOR SATURDAY. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
GENERAL WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...TYPHOON USAGI WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF YAP AND JTWC INVEST AREA 98W EAST OF SAIPAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT
CHUUK THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER WENO AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST. FORECAST MAY NEED TWEAKING FOR TOMORROW IF SHOWERS ULTIMATELY
DO PERSIST. SHOWERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD...REACHING YAP BY TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE SEEMS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT FORECAST COULD SEE NEAR-TERM TWEAKS AS 98W
EVOLVES. LONG-TERM FORECASTS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE VARIABILITY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS AS TO WHERE THE BULK
OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH THE MONSOON TAIL. IR SATELLITE SHOWS
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF PALAU THIS MORNING. CONVERGENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THAT AREA.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST-FACING REEFS OF YAP.
LARGE WEST SWELL FROM TYPHOON USAGI WILL REACH THE STATE LATER TODAY
GENERATING SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET. SURF WILL PEAK TOMORROW AT 9 TO 11
FEET...BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS
THIS SWELL SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...AND REACHING KOROR ON
FRIDAY. SURF MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR BOTH NORTH AND WEST FACING
REEFS OF YAP AND KOROR ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR
     PMZ151-152.

&&

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 18, 6:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 47 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Guam issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 19, 9:06 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GUM	54 min
Sep 19, 9:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GUM	40 min
Sep 19, 9:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GUM	33 min
Sep 19, 9:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GUM	37 min
Sep 19, 9:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GUM	31 min
Sep 19, 10:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GUM	47 min
Sep 19, 11:50 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GUM	3 hr
Sep 19, 6:57 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GUM	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Guam, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.