Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

707 
WWUS42 KGSP 221013
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTRY WEATHER TO SWEEP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THIS MORNING WAS BRINGING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WAS MAINTAINING
A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION FALLING
INTO THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED
WITH SOME SLEET...ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AN
ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

NCZ507>510-221115-
/O.CAN.KGSP.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
513 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

A FEW PATCHES OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SLICK PATCHES ON ROADS...MAINLY NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE...THROUGH MID MORNING.

$$

NCZ069-221115-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LINCOLNTON
513 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-221700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
513 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...AVERY...MITCHELL...AND YANCEY COUNTIES...AS WELL 
  AS MOUNTAIN PORTIONS OF CALDWELL...BURKE...AND MCDOWELL 
  COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...SOME ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW...TOPPED BY
  MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...A PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE
  INCH...TOPPED BY ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE FROM
  FREEZING RAIN.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT THE 
  HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY BE LOCALLY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE
  OR LESS IN PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET
  ACCUMULATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN...WILL CAUSE SOME TREE
  AND BRANCH DAMAGE AND LIKELY LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL
  WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR FREEZING THIS MORNING...RECOVERING TO THE
  MID 30S AROUND NOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGE
TO TREES OR STRUCTURES...BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH
YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU
CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065-221700-
/O.CON.KGSP.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
513 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
  NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS AND RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME
  FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX PART OF THE WAY DOWN INTO THE MOUNTAIN
  VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION IS
  EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO
  DRIZZLE BY NOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TRACE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET. ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN RANGING FROM ONE TENTH OF AN
  INCH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT THE 
  HIGHER RIDGE TOPS.

* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AT THE 
  HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT...RISING TO THE MID 
  30S BY NOON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-221700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY
513 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS 
  OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO SLEET DURING THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
  FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAIN BY MID MORNING. THE
  PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY LATE
  MORNING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE
  EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SLEET WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
  OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATING ON TOP OF THE SLEET MAY
  CREATE ADDITIONAL DRIVING HAZARDS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK...RECOVERING TO
  THE MID 30S TOWARD NOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A
MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

&&

$$

MOORE

348 
WWUS42 KGSP 221436
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-221545-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
936 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NOON...WITH ANY
GLAZE MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES.

$$

NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065-221545-
/O.CAN.KGSP.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
936 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NOON...WITH ANY
GLAZE MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-221545-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-130222T1700Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY
936 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A MOIST WARM FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND CROSSES
OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...THE 18Z MODELS HAVE ALL COME IN WETTER ON THE QPF
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PROFILES ALSO APPEAR A BIT MORE
LOCKED INTO THE SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN RANGE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. THE SREF MEAN PRECIP AND WINTRY PRECIP
ACCUM VALUES HAVE TRENDED UP AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY. WILL TAKE A
QUICK LOOK AT THE 21Z SREF PLUMES AND LATEST INCOMING NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE SHORTLY...BUT A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD WELL BE NEEDED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS.

THERE IS ALSO A POOL OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITION WELL SW OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE DEVELOPING STRONG CAD...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER AROUND THE SW FRINGE OF THE AREA IF THE
APPROACHING LIGHTNING STRIKES PERSIST.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
UPGLIDE IMPROVE. UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING COULD SHUT OFF THE BETTER
PRECIP RATES FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...LEAVING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE AFTN. STILL ANTICIPATE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SLEET/FZRA ACCUMS ALONG INTERSTATE 40...BUT WILL
SERIOUSLY CONSIDER AN UPGRADE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. THE WAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TO COASTAL SC SAT MORNING...AND THEN
CONTINUE ON TO THE NE. FRIDAY EVENING MAY BEGIN WITH SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS NE GA AND THE CAROLINAS. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NE GA/UPSTATE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE. A BLEND OF
HPC...GMOS AND SREF YIELDS AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM NE GA
ACROSS THE UPSTATE...1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES.

ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN...EVEN IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IT MAY
STILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRI
EVENING...PER SOME THE EXPLICIT MODEL SFC TEMP FORECASTS. I USED THE
3 HOURLY SREF TO GENERATE TEMPS FRI NIGHT WHICH HAS TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
INFLUX OF COLD/DRY AIR WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING...BUT DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES INTO
SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. DRYER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE
WEST. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION.

IN REGARD TO TEMPS...I USED THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SAT
(ESSENTIALLY GFS) AS TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR AND THAT WEDGE IS LIKELY TO LINGER. SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD DAY
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS. USED THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SCHEME FOR TEMPS SUNDAY WHICH ENDED UP ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW THE
WARMER GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...I WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT WILL PARTIALLY BLEND WITH THE CMC. ON MONDAY...A
NEUTRALLY TILTED TROF WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AS A SHALLOW RIDGE EXIST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A MILLER
TYPE A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AT THE MID
LEVELS...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...RESULTING IN THE CENTER OF A  REGION OF STRONG QG FORCING
TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE CWA WILL REMAIN OF THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE QG FORCING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...LLVL SE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS CAD TO 50 KTS AT
H85...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. I
WILL INCREASE POPS SHARPLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY...PEAKING MONDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASING DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
RANGE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIQUID P-TYPES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NRN MTNS MAY SUPPORTS
PERIODS OF SN OR RASN...POSSIBLY YIELDING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MON
EVENING. I WILL ADVERTISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL S/W MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AND INDICATE MAINLY SCHC POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CHC POPS NEAR
THE TN LINE. THIS SYSTEM MAY YIELD SOME SN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT RA
EXPECTED EAST. I WILL INDICATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STEADY AND RAPID LOWERING OF VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED FROM
ISSUANCE TIME UNTIL 10Z FRI NIGHT. WILL TREND INTO MVFR CIGS BY
10Z...WITH IFR LIKELY BY 14Z...LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER MOS TRENDS.
THE PROFILES COULD WET BULB DOWN TO PERMIT A BRIEF MIX OF SN/PL
RIGHT AT THE ONSET...BUT MAINLY RAIN IS SUPPORTED THROUGH THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH ALL RAW MODEL 2M AND MOS SFC TEMPS
INDICATING MINS GENERALLY 33 TO 35 DEGREES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY SINCE THE QPF WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ICING
PROBLEMS IF WE GET JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN EXPECTED. WITH MID AND
UPPER DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOIST SFC TO 800 MB LAYER. EXPECT WINDS TO LOCK IN
FROM THE ENE TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL TO KHKY WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF WINTRY PTYPES
AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT WITH
BRIEF SN/PL POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT ONSET. PROFILES SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SN/PL AT THE ONSET AT KHKY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AND THEN DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI.
EXPECT ALL RAIN AT THE SC TAF SITES. WINDS WILL LOCK IN FROM THE ENE
TO NE WITH CAD...EXCEPT MORE SE AT KAVL. EXPECT CIGS TO TRANSITION
DOWN TO MVFR FROM THE SW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH IFR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE BEST PRECIP THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND
THEN DURING THROUGH THE RAIN/DRIZZLE PERIOD FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE AREA. IMPROVEMENT
GRADUALLY OCCURS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   79%     HIGH  85%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ507>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-222045-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
338 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-222045-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
338 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065-222045-
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
338 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-062-068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-
222045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
338 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY IT WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ...BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD RECEIVE A TOTAL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS TO STAY UPDATED ON THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ507>510-222045-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
338 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.