Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

865 
WWUS72 KGSP 110333
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A BAND OF STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE WIND SHOULD REACH THE
RIDGETOPS AND VALLEYS CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND DIMINISH AROUND DAYBREAK
AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-111100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130211T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
1033 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE 
  TENNESSEE BORDER.

* HAZARDS...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND.

* TIMING...WIND INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY...BECOMING STRONG AND 
  GUSTY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND 
  POWER LINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE 
  VEHICLES COULD BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
WIMBERLEY

343 
WWUS72 KGSP 110813
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-110915-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130211T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
313 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...WITH THE THREAT
FOR STRONG GUSTS DECREASING. SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS MAY STILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WEE MORNING HOURS.

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
852 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT TO REACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF MID MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE PATCHES OF SKY
WITH ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS...INCLUDING ONE OVER N GA MOVING
EAST...SO THE CLOUD COVER WAS LESSENED A BIT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WE SHOULD BE CLOUDING UP. THE LATEST RUC
SHOWS PRECIP NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE DELAYED
THE ONSET FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ALTHO WE STILL END UP WHERE WE SAID
BY THE END OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WERE ALSO TWEAKED FOR OBS
TREND. WE WILL WANT TO ENTERTAIN RAISING A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE THE NEXT FULL FCST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT TO A
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL DEVELOP.

ONE CAMP HAS THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER THE SRN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS INCLUDES THE NAM AND MOST
OF THE SREF MEMBERS...AS WELL AS THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE SREF OVERALL HAS LESS QPF THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM.
THE OTHER CAMP DEVELOPS PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND TENDS TO HUG THE LLVL WARM FRONT AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 00 UTC
GFS DOES...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE GEFS MEMBERS HAS LESS PCPN THAN THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL. HPC HAS GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION. IN FACT...THEY
HAVE THEIR QPF MAX EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

I CERTAINLY SEE HPC/S POINT...THOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE SUBSIDENCE
BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ON THE NAM AND GFS COULD MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THAT FAR
SOUTH. ALSO...THE 00 UTC 4KM WRF ALSO BRINGS A GOOD BIT OF PCPN
ACROSS THE SRN APPS OVERNIGHT. TAKING ALL THIS TOGETHER...I/VE
MAINTAINED A QPF MAX OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...THOUGH I
HAVEN/T GONE MUCH HIGHER THAN AROUND 2 INCHES OF QPF. IT WILL FALL
QUICKLY...MUCH OF IT WITHIN 6 TO 9 HOURS. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...EVEN TWO INCHES COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE I/VE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SRN NC MTNS...THE WRN UPSTATE AND ALL OF NE GA. AS THE FLOW
VEERS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN...AND
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY OVER THE ERN UPSTATE AND THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

PCPN SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY 12 UTC MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK UPGLIDE CONTINUING ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FA.
CONSIDERING THIS AND RUNOFF CONCERNS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
RUN UNTIL 18 UTC MONDAY. THAT/S PROBABLY OVERKILL...BUT LATER SHIFTS
CAN ALWAYS CANCEL IT EARLY IF NEED BE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DRY AIR
PUNCHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A SFC COLD
FRONT...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF POP FROM WEST TO EAST. LLVL FLOW
WILL TURN WESTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH MODEST CAA. DOWNSLOPE APPEARS
TO MOSTLY CANCEL THIS OUT...SO MODEL THICKNESSES AND LTST MOS TRENDS
ARE FOR FAIRLY WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MTNS. HAVE BLENDED IN THE
WARMER THICKNESS TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN GENERALLY UPR 60S TO ARND
70 ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CONFIDENCE IN OUR SENSIBLE WX
IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE GOOD MODEL AGREEMNT ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIE WEST TO EAST ACRS THE
GULF STATES TO THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
WSWLY MID-UPR FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DRY FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. SO I CUT
POPS BACK THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINY REALLY INCREASES
TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO DIG INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION MONDAY...THEN EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GEFS 500 MB HEIGHT SPREAD SHOWS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION. WHILE IF ONE THROWS OUT
THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z NAM...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT INVOF THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...WITH THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKING INVOF THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING...I TOOK A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH RESULTS IN A SHOTGUN LIKELY POP BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THE LLVL THICKNESSES IN ALL THE OP MODELS SEEM TO BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW. ALTHO...THE GFS FCST SNDG AT BEECH MTN DOES SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF
THE NRN MTNS MAY SEE SOME SNOW ACCUM IF THE PRECIP MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...STARTING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AXIS OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AT MEMPHIS AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ON THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK...ACROSS SAV TO CHS.  THE GFS TAKES THE LOW FROM ATL
TO CLT ALONG I-85.  THE NAM TAKES THE LOW UP INTO TENNESSEE NORTH OF
CHA. THE CANADIAN TAKES THE LOW EVEN MORE SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. FEEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION AND A
DEFORMATION ZONE FORMS OVER THE NC MTNS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON SNOWFALL IN THE NC MTNS
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS NW FLOW ENDS AND MOISTURE DRIES UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
RIDES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT RUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST IN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY.  MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE GFS CUT WAY BACK WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP OVER NC
MTNS AROUND MID DAY SATURDAY. 12Z SATURDAY ECMWF HAD ABSOLUTELY NO
PRECIP OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEWEST RUN HAS LIGHT
PRECIP OVER MAINLY WESTERN NC FROM MID DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING VERY COLD AIR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST COLD.  ACCORDING TO
GFS...AVL WOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND FOR SURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE TO S ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WRN CAROLINAS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AND SHOULD LOWER VSBYS TO AROUND 2 MILES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY
LATE EVENING OVER THE UPSTATE...AND A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KCLT.
THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK STABLE AND I HAVE NOT ADDED ANY THUNDER TO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE
            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ062>064.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001-002-004-005-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>064-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-110830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
322 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-
006>009-011>014-019-110830-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
322 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.