Wind Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...KEPT THE STRATO-CU GOING FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ALONG THE TN LINE. OTHERWISE THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 935 PM...NW FLOW STRATOCU IS STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT THIS
EVENING...AND THE SKY COVER FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLOW THE
TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE TENN BORDER. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE NC MTNS...ESP
THE NORTHERN MTNS...SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ON SATURDAY PROVIDING CLEAR SKY AND LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE WEST AND
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THEN CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FROM 310K ON DOWN...BUT SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
PRODUCTIVE. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF AND IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...AND THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN. A CHANCE POP WILL EMANATE FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER 18Z AND EXPAND FROM THERE. THE BIG CONCERN APPEARS TO BE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AT THIS MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
QUICK SHOT. THE UPPER LOW AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE OVER
THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...LEAVING ONLY A SMALLER SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL FORCING...BUT THE PW ANOMALY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE TO KEEP THE CATEGORICAL POP ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...CENTERED AROUND 06Z...BUT THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN FOR LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS...OR AT LEAST NOTHING THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL GET TOO FAR OUT OF CONTROL. THIS COULD CHANGE. AT LEAST
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AS TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE EVENT SHOULD WIND DOWN MONDAY MORNING. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY...WITH THE FORCING WELL
TO OUR EAST. ALL THREE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A LULL WITH
TEMPORARY DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE FORECAST WILL ATTEMPT TO
REFLECT THAT. LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING WILL KEEP A LOW END POP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE...OTHERWISE THE PRECIP WAS DROPPED
ALONG AND N OF I-85 FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WERE ALSO
BUMPED UP A BIT TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY FRI...THE PERIOD OPENS AT 00Z TUE WITH THE CWFA UNDER
WEAK CAA REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FROPA. AS PARENT SFC LOW OVER SRN
ONTARIO MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THE FRONT TAKES
ON A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION LAYING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THIS IS
SHOWN ON BOTH THE 00Z EC AND 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL AS
HINTED AT BY THE 12Z GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLES...SHOWING AN ELONGATED
REGION OF LIKELY NONZERO QPF PROBS ACROSS GA/SC. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS KEEP US DRY THE FRONTAL ZONE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND
IN LIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLES I HAVE HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES...TAPERING OFF UP INTO NC.

SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY...WHILE BOTH THE EC/GFS SHOW AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...GFS
STRENGTHENS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX TUESDAY AND IT PRODUCES A
CLOSED SFC LOW OVER LOUISIANA BY 00Z WED AS A RESULT. THIS WOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NRN GA AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. EC NOW ALSO SHOWS A GULF LOW BUT
WITH LESS UPPER FORCING IT DEVELOPS FURTHER EAST AND TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MUCH LESS PRECIP OVER OUR AREA.
NEITHER MODEL HAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THUNDER MENTIONS OR
SEVERE RISK DESPITE POTENT LLVL JET EAST OF THE LOW PRODUCING STRONG
LLVL SHEAR.

ASSUMING THE GULF LOW DOES DEVELOP THE FRONT WOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
AGAIN BY LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. ISENTROPIC FIELDS ARE NOT VERY
EXCITING AND QPF FROM MODELS IS FAIRLY LOW EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH
FEATURES 2 INCHES OR MORE OVER CENTRAL SC. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE
LOWER SIDE SO I LEANED LOWER. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST LATE
WED. THE GFS HAS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE EARLY THU AND GIVEN THIS
SOLUTION I PUT IN SLIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN...ALBEIT
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. DRY FOR THURSDAY DAYTIME INTO
FRI WITH AT LEAST BRIEF RIDGING SETTLING IN AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL SEE A LITTLE STRATO-CU FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE BAND OF BROKEN CIGS
THAT AFFECTED THE AIRFIELD EARLIER HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED. WINDS AT
KAVL WILL GUST INTO THE LOW 30 KT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND A
ROUGE GUST OR TWO TO 40 KTS IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING. GAP
WINDS FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KGSP AND KGMU AS WELL. WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL SET UP THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT WIDESPREAD CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING DURING MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE
            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   0%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   0%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   0%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   0%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   0%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   0%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     049-050-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ053-065-
     507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>003-100015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
713 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ053-065-507-509-100015-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
713 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DOWNED
TREES OR POWER LINES TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-100015-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
713 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DOWNED
TREES OR POWER LINES TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-100015-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
713 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE