Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

736 
WWUS72 KGSP 081534
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY AND OUT INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-082345-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.130208T2100Z-130209T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE 
  ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED 
  POWER OUTAGES AND BLOCKING ROADS. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. 
  EXTREME DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE ADDRESS WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

$$

NCZ048-053-065-502-504-506>510-082345-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.130208T2100Z-130209T1100Z/
MADISON-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AREAS 
  SOUTH AND EAST OF ASHEVILLE...INCLUDING HENDERSONVILLE... 
  FAIRVIEW AND BLACK MOUNTAIN. ALSO...THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF 
  NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY 
  THE WINDS...BLOCKING A FEW ROADS AND CAUSING SPOTTY POWER 
  OUTAGES. DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

691 
WWUS72 KGSP 082036
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT SLOPES
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND OUT INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-090445-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.130208T2100Z-130209T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
335 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE 
  ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED 
  POWER OUTAGES AND BLOCKING ROADS. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. 
  EXTREME DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE ADDRESS WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

$$

NCZ048-053-065-502-504-506>510-090445-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.130208T2100Z-130209T1100Z/
MADISON-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE
335 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AREAS 
  SOUTH AND EAST OF ASHEVILLE...INCLUDING HENDERSONVILLE... 
  FAIRVIEW AND BLACK MOUNTAIN. ALSO...THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF 
  NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY 
  THE WINDS...BLOCKING A FEW ROADS AND CAUSING SPOTTY POWER 
  OUTAGES. DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MOORE

880 
WWUS72 KGSP 090008
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.

NCZ048-502-504-506-508-510-090115-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130209T1100Z/
MADISON-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
708 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-091100-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130209T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
708 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE 
  ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED
  POWER OUTAGES AND BLOCKING ROADS. EXTREME DIFFICULTY DRIVING
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE ADDRESS WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

$$

NCZ053-065-507-509-091100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130209T1100Z/
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE
708 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...HENDERSON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...AND THE HIGH
  ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. 

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY 
  THE WINDS...BLOCKING A FEW ROADS AND CAUSING SPOTTY POWER 
  OUTAGES. DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... 
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
LANE

767 
WWUS72 KGSP 090805
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2013

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-091100-
/O.CAN.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130209T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.130209T0805Z-130209T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
305 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE 
  ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNRISE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
  DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ053-065-507-509-090915-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130209T1100Z/
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE
305 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

WHILE IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AND STALL
OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO RNK AND TALKING TO THE COUNTY...WE ARE
GOING TO CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR AVERY COUNTY. PCPN HAS
STOPPED OVER THE COUNTY AND NO SLICK ROADS WERE BEING REPORTED.
THERE ARE SOME MESONET SITES THAT AREA HOLDING AT FREEZING...ALONG
WITH A COUPLE RIDGE TOPS...BUT WITH TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY WARM THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND NO ADDITIONAL PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 12 UTC IT
SEEMS REASONABLE TO LET THE ADVISORY GO.

OTHERWISE A DEVELOPING STORM CENTER WILL WORK IT/S WAY UP THE
DELMARVA COAST TODAY. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
MODEL RESPONSE WITH THIS FEATURE AND I/VE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE TN LINE CENTERED RIGHT AROUND THE NOON HOUR. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE UPSTREAM WAVE TO THE
COASTAL BOMB SHOULD LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MTNS LATER TODAY. ALL THE PCPN WITH THE FEATURE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. IN FACT...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L60S OVER THE WRN
UPSTATE AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

HPC IS GENERALLY GOING WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE WITH THE NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. THEREFORE...I/VE FOLLOWED
THE NAM FOR MY WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. A RATHER PRONOUNCED MOUNTAIN
WAVE WILL DEVELOP WITH 55 TO 60 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE RIDGE TOP LEVEL.
WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND A LLVL INVERSION THAT DROPS WELL BELOW
RIDGE TOP LEVEL...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF DAMAGING
WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW 60 KT WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY...THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE LLVL INVERSION. I/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A WARNING MIGHT BE
NEEDED FOR THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY IF THE LOW DOES INDEED
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. HENDERSON COUNTY IS MOST AT RISK IN THESE
TYPE OF EVENTS. THE NW FLOW MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND I THINK THERE
WILL ONLY BE MINIMAL FLURRY OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RIME ICING ALONG
THE TN LINE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...THE PRES GRAD WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACRS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS. A PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRES SYS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY. THE SFC HIGH
WILL BE QUITE DRY...ALLOWING SFC RH TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LWR
20S. H8 CAA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TURNS ALMOST DUE NLY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER THAN
FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL
CROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRES SYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...AS A LOW PRES SYS RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ACRS THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. DEEP RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ATOP THE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK...AND WILL MOISTEN PROFILES FROM THE TOP DOWN THRUT THE
DAY. THE LLVLS START OUT QUITE DRY. SO EVEN THO MOST MODELS HAVE QPF
ACRS THE WRN HALF OR SO OF THE CWFA BY 00Z MONDAY...I KEPT POPS JUST
SLGT CHC IN THE WEST THRU 6 PM. THEREAFTER...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYS WILL ENTER THE CWFA FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY EVENING. THE BEST ISENT LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL CROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PWATS EXPECTED IN THE 1-1.25" RANGE AND
A STRONG SWLY LLJ. SO POPS RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS ALL THE MTN
AND FOOTHILL ZONES...AND LIKELY ACRS THE SE FRINGE FURTHEST REMOVED
FROM THE BEST FORCING AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HEALTHY QPF ACRS THE SW AND CENTRAL NC MTNS THRU 12Z MONDAY. SO
FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON 1-2" OF RAIN WITH THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIP
ACRS THESE AREAS...ESP IN THE SWLY UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCALES. THE
POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH DOES SUPPORT AN IN SITU WEDGE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ENHANCE QPF FURTHER NE ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT/FOOTHILLS OF NC. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHUD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM FRIDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z
ON MONDAY WITH A CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE BROADER UPPER TROF DIGGING DOWN OVER
THE SW CONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE REMAINING SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CONUS AND TO OUR DOORSTEP BY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
OVERALL AGREEMENT WRT THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PRETTY
GOOD BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS STAYING MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF.

AT THE SFC...A LOW TRACKS NE AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WHILE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS FRONTAL BNDY
MOVES INTO THE CWFA LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO LAY THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWFA ON TUES WHERE AN
ELONGATED REGION OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND CONSEQUENTLY DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW...WITH GREAT
CONFIDENCE...HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ON
TUES AND INTO WED. FOR THE TIME BEING...I CARRY A SOLID CHANCE POP
OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA THRU TUES WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. LATE TUES AND INTO WED...SOME SORT OF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS
DONT AGREE VERY WELL AT THE PRESENT TIME WRT HOW FAR EAST THE LOW
DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR NORTH ITS TRACK WILL BE. THE GFS SPINS IT UP
ABOUT 12 HRS SOONER AND HAS IT TRACKING FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS MUCH OF THE CWFA UNDER DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE THRU ABOUT 18Z WED WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS WE SEE HOW THIS FCST LOW WILL PLAY OUT. FOR THE TIME
BEING...MY FCST IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
FAVORS THE DRIER OPERATIONAL ECMWF. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED ON
DAYS 6 AND 7 AFTER THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A TOUGH CIG/VSBY FORECAST. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY UP THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...AND THE SFC FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE BNDRY LAYER WILL MIX IN QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR AS WELL. I THINK IT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE PERIODS
WHERE IFR CIGS PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD AND THEN MIX OUT. A
LONGER PERIOD OF MVFR OR HIGHER CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM 10-12
UTC...BUT BY AROUND 7 AM THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH THAT FOG
WILL ACTUALLY THICKEN OVER THE REGION EVEN AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. A PERIOD OF CROSS-WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE EARLY AFTN. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE /EXCEPT KAVL/...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE AT
KCLT AS THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN LLVL MOISTURE BRINGING IFR
STRATUS AND DRIER AIR MIXING FROM ALOFT. OVER THE UPSTATE LARGELY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AFTER 0800 UTC. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WHICH MAY SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS AND FOG AND MORE WIDESPREAD STATUS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW. IT/S A TOUGH FORECAST...BUT I AT LEAST HOPE I/VE
CAPTURED THE TRENDS. KHKY IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBYS THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

AT KAVL...CONDITIONS AT KAVL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETTER THAN MANY
SITES TO THE EAST AS THE AIRFIELD WILL SEE MORE EFFECTS FROM DRIER
AIR MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT OR CALM. AT THAT TIME IFR FOG AND
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MY BEST GUESS FOR THIS IS 11
UTC...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ISN/T GOOD. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL SET UP THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT WIDESPREAD CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION
RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ048-053-065-502-504-506>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NCZ048-049-051>053-059-505-090345-
MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1035 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PERHAPS SOME OF IT HEAVY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ050-501-503-090345-
MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
1035 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR BLACK ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PERHAPS SOME OF IT HEAVY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ033-090345-
AVERY-
1035 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PERHAPS SOME OF IT HEAVY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056>058-062>065-068>072-082-
502-504-506>510-SCZ001>014-019-090345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1035 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PERHAPS SOME OF IT HEAVY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE