Wind Advisory 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

728 
WWUS72 KGSP 031949
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

NCZ052-053-059-062-063-501-503-505-040400-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130204T0600Z/
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN
249 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

* TIMING...THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 10
  PM.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
WIMBERLEY

153 
WWUS72 KGSP 040158
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
858 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

NCZ052-053-059-062-063-040300-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130204T0600Z/
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN
858 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

$$

NCZ501-503-505-040600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130204T0600Z/
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
858 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF CALDWELL...BURKE AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

* TIMING...INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MCAVOY

864 
WWUS72 KGSP 040555
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

NCZ033-049-050-041100-
/O.EXB.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130204T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1255 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...AVERY...YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

* TIMING...INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ501-503-505-041100-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130204T1100Z/
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1255 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF CALDWELL...BURKE AND MCDOWELL 
  COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

* TIMING...INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

245 
WWUS72 KGSP 040910
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-041015-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130204T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
410 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 AM EST SUN FEB 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION MONDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT TO REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
HAVE BEEN REALIGNED BASED ON THE LATEST EXPECTATIONS OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN.

AS OF 750 PM...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS/WX ACRS THE REGION
TO LINE UP WITH RADAR TRENDS. GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA. REFLECTIVITY IS GETTING A BIT SCARY NEAR THE
RADAR...WITH MELTING LAYER JUST A 1000 FT OR SO AGL AT KGSP. I
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85. LTL IF ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED. OVERALL...JUST
A LIGHT COLD RAIN OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THE CURRENT WINTER WX PRODUCTS
LOOK FINE.

AS OF 655 PM...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING OVER SWAIN...NORTHERN JACKSON AND HAYWOOD
COUNTIES. SWAIN HAS REACHED 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA AND THE OTHER
TWO COUNTIES ARE GETTING THERE QUICKLY. A FINAL BAND OF WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOULD ADD ANOTHER INCH OR SO TO ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER THAT THE
SHORT WAVE..WHICH IS SHOWING UP WITH A NICE LITTLE BAROCLINIC LEAF
ATTM ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BE PAST AND THE
FORCING FOR PCPN WILL BECOME PRIMARILY NW UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS NW FLOW
WILL ALSO ADD TO THE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THESE COUNTIES. WE DIDN/T ADD GRAHAM AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
COUNTY HAVEN/T HAD MUCH SNOW AND WE HAVE HAD NO RELIABLE REPORTS
FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AND IN MADISON COUNTY THERE HAS BEEN
HARDLY ANY SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

AS OF 500 PM...AFTER MAKING A FEW PHONE CALLS ACRS RABUN AND
HABERSHAM COUNTIES...HAVE REPORTS OF 2-3" ACRS RABUN AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH IN HABERSHAM. THE ECHOES ON THE HTX RADAR ARE
RATHER REFLECTIVE IN A BAND OF PRECIP ACRS NRN AL INTO NW GA ATTM.
THE HIGH RES WRF AND 18Z NAM HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF THIS BAND OF
MOISTURE STREAKING ACRS NRN GA EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY LOSING
PRECIP EFFICIENCY AS IT ENTERS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. THE NAM
ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SFC WET BULB TEMPS ACRS RABUN WILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. SO PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE ALL SNOW THERE. OUTSIDE OF RABUN...THINK MORE OF A MIX OF RA/SN
OR ALL RAIN. SO WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT RABUN WILL PROBABLY PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH TOTALS OF
2-4"...AND THAT IS THE 12-HOUR WARNING CRITERIA. AN UPGRADE TO
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RABUN. OTHERWISE...FCST
LOOKS WELL IN HAND. I DID UP THE POPS ACRS THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY
AND ACRS UPSTATE TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO...AS HIGH RES MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP BAND HOLDING TOGETHER. MOST OF THIS PRECIP
WILL BE RAIN...AND WHERE THERE IS SNOW...IT SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY
MAJOR PROBLEMS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF EARLY SAT AFTN...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL AID MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AS THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES ROLLS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FLOW DIRECTION IS INITIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THROUGHOUT THE CWFA BUT ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE WITH THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE PIEDMONT.
SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY DRY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE MUCH OF THE PRECIP EVAPORATE INITIALLY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO COOLING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE WET BULB TEMPS.
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD THUS RESULT OVER THE PIEDMONT...THOUGH
THE FORCING IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND MOISTURE STILL SOMEWHAT
LACKING. QPF VALUES ARE QUITE SMALL OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED THERE.

THE INITIAL WAVE WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE CWFA BY 06Z...BUT
ANOTHER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE TN VALLEY AT THAT TIME. WINDS
VEER THIS EVENING SO THE DYNAMIC FORCING THE MTNS RECEIVE FROM THAT
WAVE LATE TONIGHT WILL COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE A SECOND
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH MODELS STILL
PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE DAY. QPF REMAINS LIGHT WITH ONLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING AT THAT TIME. THE PIEDMONT LOOKS TO ONLY
RECEIVE CIRRUS WITH THE SECOND WAVE...LACKING SUFFICIENT LLVL
MOISTURE. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE TIGHT UPPER HEIGHT GRADIENT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS WERE RAISED ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUDING SRN JACKSON...RABUN AND HABERSHAM COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX
ADVY. THE ADVY WORTHY TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE FOCUSED IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SUN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...
THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THRU TUE. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE DROPS THRU THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MON NITE. A
STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU THE TROF AND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUE. FOR THE FIRST TIME DURING THIS CONTINUED LONG WAVE
TROF...SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
SHORT WAVE. THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE BUT WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...BUT IT IS A QUICK SHOT. IN ADDITION...THE SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE SPINS UP A LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST ON THE SRN END OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY STRONG NORTHWARD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX.
THEREFORE...WITH THE WLY FLOW INTO THE MTNS...THEY HAVE THE BEST CHC
OF SEEING ANY PRECIP INITIALLY. BEST PRECIP CHC THEN TRANSLATES
SOUTH OF THE CWFA AS THE GULF LOW SPINS UP. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POP
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MTNS LATE MON NITE AND TUE MORNING. SLIGHT CHC
DOES NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR...BUT
DOES SPREAD INTO NE GA...THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC PIEDMONT DURING
THE DAY TUE. AS THE WAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUE NITE...PRECIP
COMES TO AN END.

P-TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY WARMER ATMOS IN PLACE BY
THE TIME PRECIP DEVELOPS. TOP DOWN METHOD SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING AS
A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX MON EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS. PRECIP QUICKLY
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUE AS WARMING CONTINUES. PRECIP ENDS TUE NITE AS A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX. QPF FCST IS VERY LIGHT...BASICALLY ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER ANY ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MON RISE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUE. LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE RISE TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR
NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THE GFS
HAS A MORE TYPICAL CAD FORM TO THE HIGH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF HAS ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL FADE AWAY AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY. THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
TO AROUND PA ON GFS AND NY ON ECMWF ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CAD PATTERN AND PERHAPS EVEN BETTER CAD THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY.
THE NEWEST ECMWF HAS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN FOR
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A GULF LOW FORMING...CROSSING GA AT
00Z FRIDAY AND REACHING EASTERN NC AT 06Z FRIDAY. MUST WAIT FOR
FUTURE RUNS BEFORE REACTING WITH GRID CHANGES.

BY LATE SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WE WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WHICH WILL BE MOVING EAST AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE PREVIOUS GFS HAD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER OUR SW
MTNS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE NEWEST GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT STILL WELL WEST OF OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE
12Z FRIDAY ECMWF HAS A RATHER STRONG CAD PATTERN HIGH PRODUCING
NORTHEAST FLOW AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SW.  THE NEWEST ECMWF
BACKS THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST AS WELL. THEREFORE...SEEMS CLEAR TO
SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE OF POPS TO LATER BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED AND FRI...BUT NEAR NORMAL
THURS AND SAT AS THOSE ARE THE CAD DAYS.  IF THE CADS ARE WELL
DEVELOPED...THE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUR OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SERIES OF IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY WSW WINDS GOING INTO MIDDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO WNW IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS WILL ABATE TOWARD THE WND OF THE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LOW VFR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS...THEN CLOUDS ERODE BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE BASED OF AND
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH DIRECTION
FAVORING THE WSW UNTIL MIDDAY...THEN THE WNW. GUSTS WILL ABATE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. KAVL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS WINDS CHANNEL
UP THE VALLEY FROM THE NW. CHANCES OF SNOW AT KAVL THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION. IFR TO MVFR CIGS AT KGSP AND
KGMU...AND LOW VFR CIG AT KHKY...WILL LIFT AND THEN ERODE BY
DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE SW. THE KAVL LOW VFR CIG WILL
FOLLOW SUIT BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AT MID WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY IMPACT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY GUSTY WINDS...SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPSTATE TODAY. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAPIDLY DEPLETING IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE UPSTATE TODAY. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT RH...
WHILE LOW SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ051-052-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ058-062-
     063.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
040415-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>050-040415-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SCZ001>014-019-040415-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ051-052-059-040415-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ058-062-063-040415-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-GRAHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ053-040415-
BUNCOMBE-
1103 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     SNOW             3 SW CHEROKEE           35.44N 83.35W
02/02/2013  M5.5 INCH        JACKSON            NC   PUBLIC

            SOCIALMEDIA REPORT BETWEEN CHEROKEE AND WHITTIER BUT
            CLOSER TO WHITTIER.

0900 PM     SNOW             BATESVILLE              34.75N 83.61W
02/02/2013  E2.0 INCH        HABERSHAM          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES FELL DUE TO THE SNOW. ROADS SLICK. THE
            CENTRAL PART OF HABERSHAM COUNTY HAD A HALF TO ONE INCH
            OF SNOW. TRACE TO A QUARTER IMCH FELL IN SOUTHERN PART OF
            COUNTY AND MELTED QUICKLY.

0945 PM     SNOW             MARS HILL               35.83N 82.55W
02/02/2013  E3.0 INCH        MADISON            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARS HILL WITH MULTIPLE VEHICLE
            ACCIDENTS. MARSHALL HAD AROUND AN INCH AND HOT SPRINGS
            HAD A HALF TO ONE INCH.

0945 PM     SNOW             BURNSVILLE              35.92N 82.30W
02/02/2013  E2.0 INCH        YANCEY             NC   911 CALL CENTER

1000 PM     SNOW             BAKERSVILLE             36.01N 82.16W
02/02/2013  E3.0 INCH        MITCHELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN BARKERSVILLE. ROAD CONDITIONS
            ARE VERY BAD. NO TRAVEL RECOMMENDED. AN OFFICER IN
            BULADEAN AREA STRANDED.

1010 PM     SNOW             NEWLAND                 36.09N 81.93W
02/02/2013  E3.0 INCH        AVERY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            RECENT AREA OF SNOW DROPPED 2 QUICK INCHES FOR TOTAL OF 3
            INCHES SO FAR. BEECH AND SUGAR MOUNTAIN AREA HAS VERY
            HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. BEECH MOUNTAIN CURRENTLY HAS 3
            TO 4 INCHES.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     SNOW             10 N MARS HILL          35.97N 82.55W
02/02/2013  M3.5 INCH        UNICOI             TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT TOOK FOUR MEASUREMENTS THAT AVERAGED 3.5
            INCHES AT SAMS GSP. SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON INTERSTATE 26
            NEAR TENNESSEE BORDER. NO MORE THAN AN INCH ON TREATED
            ROADS. SECONDARY ROADS 1 TO 2 INCHES. DENSE FOG OCCURRING
            AT BUCKNER GAP ON I-26 WHERE VISIBILITY WAS LESS THAN 20
            FEET.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     SNOW             BALSAM GROVE            35.23N 82.87W
02/02/2013  E3.0 INCH        TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

            STILL SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FALLING.

0900 PM     SNOW             1 S WEAVERVILLE         35.68N 82.56W
02/02/2013  E1.0 INCH        BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            SOCIALMEDIA REPORT OF AROUND ONE INCH SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
            WEAVERVILLE.

&&

OUTLAW