Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2013

Wind Advisory 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

October 31, 201311 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Oct 31, 2013, 4:01 AM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 31, 2013, 6:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 31, 2013, 4:01 AM EDT (08:01 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 31, 2013, 6:00 PM EDT
Expired
Nov 1, 2013, 7:00 AM EDT
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 271 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2013-10-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2013-10-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 44 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1639 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

744 
WWUS72 KGSP 310801
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...BECOMING WINDY THIS EVENING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. THE WIND MAY
BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-311615-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.131031T2200Z-131101T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...WAYNESVILLE
401 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
FRIDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
  NORTH CAROLINA

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...WIND INCREASING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES AND
  RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MOORE
3 follow-up statements
790 
WWUS72 KGSP 311636
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...BECOMING WINDY THIS EVENING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. THE WIND MAY
BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-010230-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.131031T2200Z-131101T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...WAYNESVILLE
1236 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EDT FRIDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTH CAROLINA

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...WIND INCREASING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT 
  THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES 
  AND RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

14
649 
WWUS72 KGSP 010229
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...BECOMING WINDY OVERNIGHT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS. THE WIND MAY
BECOME EVEN MORE GUSTY AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-011100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131101T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...WAYNESVILLE
1029 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTH CAROLINA

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...STRONG WIND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES 
  AND RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
552 
WWUS72 KGSP 010720
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST UNDER
ANY SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
DAYBREAK.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-011100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131101T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...WAYNESVILLE
320 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTH CAROLINA

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS AND TAPER OFF AROUND DAYBREAK.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES AND
  RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Oct 31, 3:36 AM EDT, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 3:36 AM EDT, 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THEN COOLER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. TEMP TRENDS REQUIRE A FEW TWEAKS BUT
APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER.

CHANGE WILL CARRY THE DAY NOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW
ALOFT WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF SHOULD REACH THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST MID AND UPPER
FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET. THE ONLY CHANCE WE
MIGHT HAVE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE
SRN MTNS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE WILL GET THERE FIRST. FOR
THE MOST PART...THAT LEAVES US WITH A WARM DAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN RH.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IS THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE GFS IS STILL ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE ALONG WITH THE SREF AND 4KM SPC
WRF WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP REACHING THE MTNS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN ALONG/E OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN BORDER BETWEEN
THE CHANCE POP AND THE CATEGORICAL...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET
OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE AFTER
SUNSET AND THAT SHOULD INCREASE THE WINDS DRAMATICALLY ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS...ALTHOUGH IN SIMILAR WARM ADVECTION FLOWS IT SEEMS LIKE
WIND SPEEDS NEVER QUITE MATCH UP TO THE GUIDANCE POTENTIAL...AND
RARELY MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS TO SORT OF MATCH UP WITH WHAT IS
PLANNED BY WRN/NRN NEIGHBORS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CERTAINLY BRING
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE TIMING WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN
THE WAY OF BUOYANCY OVERNIGHT. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT PROVIDE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT OVERLAP IN HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE...SO THE
SEVERE RISK WILL BE DOWNPLAYED FOR NOW...BUT ONE SHOULD NEVER GIVE
UP ENTIRELY IN THESE SITUATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...THERE IS STILL A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER NAM AND FASTER GFS ON THE FRONTAL BAND POSITION
AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ALREADY HAS THE PRECIP ACRS THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE THE NAM STILL IN THE NC MTNS. TAKING A
COMPROMISE...EXPECT THE PRECIP SHIELD TO JUST BE ENTERING THE
PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT CAN PUSH THRU. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST CHC OF TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE
AFTN ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR (BULK SHEAR
60+ KTS AND 0-3KM HELICITY 350+ M2/S2). SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS)...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. (THE NEW DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THE PIEDMONT IN A 5 PCT SEE TEXT). THIS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.5" RANGE ON FRIDAY (OF COURSE SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALLY MORE). TEMPS WILL START OUT MILD...BUT PROBABLY TOP OUT
COOLER THAN THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIP.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. THE NAM
DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
PIEDMONT...PROLONGING POPS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY
OTHER GUIDANCE...SO DID NOT USE THE NAM. WITH A DRY SLOT ACRS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...SHUD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 40S TO LWR 50S.

SATURDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE UPR TROF AXIS LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTN...SHARPENING THE TROF AND PRODUCING PLENTY OF
UPR LVL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE NAM/GFS/CMC ALL SHOW SOME LGT QPF
REACHING THE NC MTNS IN INCREASING CAA NWLY LLVL FLOW...WITH SPOTTY
RESPONSE ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. FCST SNDGS DO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND SOME INSTBY INVOF
KHKY/KCLT. SO I THINK THE SLGT CHC POP IN THE CONSENSUS LOOKS
REASONABLE. POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO CHC ALONG THE TN LINE. AS FOR
P-TYPE. TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT LEAST THRU THE AFTN.
HIGHS ACRS THE REGION WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY ONGOING NW FLOW SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN
BORDER MAY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OR TO ALL SNOW...AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BELOW 0C. WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC POP IN THE GRIDS THO...STILL
THINK VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...GENERALLY 30S MTNS AND LWR 40S PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE EAST
COAST TROF WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BY EARLY
MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES...THEN OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT DRY WX FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC HIGH. MODELS HAVE COME IN DRIER FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON SKY/POP
TUE-WED. TEMP TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT MAYBE NOT
THROUGH THE NEXT ONE. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN MIGHT BRING SOME LOWER CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE THAT ANY RESTRICTIONS OR
PRECIP WILL REACH METRO CHARLOTTE BEFORE 06Z FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW FOG PATCHES THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT NOT
AT ANY TAF SITES...OWING TO THE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER.
THE FCST IS VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE TIME OF
ARRIVAL. THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO INVADE FROM THE W AND SW
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT FOR THE MOST PART STILL AT THE
LOW END OF VFR. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP MIGHT REACH
KAVL DURING THE LATE EVENING...AND QUITE POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD...SO AN MVFR RESTRICTION WAS INTRODUCED THERE AT 05Z
FRIDAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE GREATER IMPACT FCST IN THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. DRYING IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 30, 4:57 PM EDT, 11 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-312100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
457 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A STRONG
COLD WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR COULD YIELD ONE OR
TWO WEAK TORNADOES.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-312100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
457 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NED

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2013Every wind advisory in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.