Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE
PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 455 PM...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF I-85. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRACK EAST...GENERALLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA IN TWO HOURS. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LINE AND DECREASE THEM BEHIND THE LINE. BY MID
EVENING...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE QUIET...WITH LINGERING
ISO SHRAS. I WILL ALSO UPDATE THE TEMP/DWPTS TO ALIGN WITH OBS.

AS OF 230 PM...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
NOW PROPAGATING OUT ONTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE STATESVILLE AREA SW
TO THE SC MTNS. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL LARGER THAN 1" DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG...DCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30KTS AHEAD OF THIS BROKEN
LINE...EXPECT THE TRENDS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE UPSTATE AND SWRN NC
PIEDMONT THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN. WILL UPDATE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG
AND SE OF THE CURRENT LINE POSITION.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING TO THE EAST...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE POPS DOWN
TO SILENT BY MIDNIGHT ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA. THERE WILL BE LINGERING
LLVL MOISTURE AND A SLOW-MOVING FNTL BNDRY SAGGING SEWD THRU THE
CWFA OVERNIGHT. SO PROBABLY WILL SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND
STRATUS BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN THE MTN VLYS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ALL
THE WAY THRU THE CWFA TO THE SE BY MID MORNING. ALOFT...SUBSIDENCE
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL WARM MID LVL TEMPS. FCST SNDGS
ACRS THE CWFA ARE CAPPED IN THE MID LVLS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHWR OR TWO IN THE SRN/CENTRAL NC MTNS...IF DEWPTS DON/T MIX OUT
ENUF. BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDS. SO A DRY
FCST. WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...
KEEPING A NW FLOW OVERHEAD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRY WEATHER
OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
DRY. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND IT IS HARD TO KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING ON A TYPICAL DAY...SO NOT
MUCH WAS CHANGED FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL PROVIDE FOR A BETTER SITUATION CONVECTIVELY. THE MODELS SUGGEST
A FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS CROSSING
THE FCST AREA TOO EARLY IN THE DAY TO TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP ON THE TN BORDER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT REACHING THE FCST AREA BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A CHANCE POP WAS
ALSO KEPT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EVENT THAT THE FRONT DOES
NOT MAKE AS MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. TEMPS WERE
KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE BEGINS JUST AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE MIDWEST...AND THE FRONT STALLS
RIGHT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
FOLLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH...SO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
PATTERN UNSETTLED...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CWA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AGAIN BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS STILL DIVERGE GREATLY ON SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND TIMING OF FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
HOWEVER...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO EACH DAY FOLLOWING A MAINLY
DIURNAL TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NW OF THE
TERMINAL AT TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE. WITH PLENTY OF INSTBY AND JUST
ENUF SHEAR...EXPECT THE LINE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACRS
THE NC PIEDMONT THRU AT LEAST 00Z THIS EVENING. SO WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FIRST TWO HOURS...THEN PREVAILING TSRA THRU 00Z.
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AND BRING THE WINDS AROUND
TO NE. GUIDANCE MIXED ON WHETHER ANY FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. IF WIDESPREAD RAIN FALLS ACRS THE REGION...MAY SEE MORE
RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LGT NELY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING THRU 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THRU KAVL AND KHKY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU THE
AFTN. SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN FOR REST OF THE AFTN. THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE HRRR HAS A LINE OF STORMS BACK
BUILD AT LEAST TO KGMU/KGSP. NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH
TEMPO...SO KEEPING JUST VCTS. KAND LOOKS TO HAVE THE LOWEST CHC OF
TSRA...BUT STILL HIGH ENUF FOR VCTS. CONVECTION SHUD WANE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE MIXED ON HOW MUCH RESTRICTIONS ACRS THE
REGION...BUT GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND...LIGHT WIND...AND DRY MID
LVLS...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE
MTN VLYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK THRU THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.  WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-022015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
401 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOILING SPRINGS SC      35.04N 81.98W
08/01/2013                   SPARTANBURG        SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON 3RD STREET.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW FOUNTAIN INN       34.66N 82.24W
08/01/2013                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF NASH MILL RD. AND TALL
            PINES RD.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ENE LAURENS           34.54N 81.91W
08/01/2013                   LAURENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF SC HWY 49 AND SC HWY 308

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

GAZ028-029-012230-
ELBERT-HART-
539 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ELBERT AND SOUTHEASTERN
HART COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 535 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NUBERG...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARTWELL...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RUCKERSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3411 8302 3432 8295 3431 8279 3428 8276
      3411 8275

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             3 SSE FORK SHOALS       34.58N 82.29W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UO TO 1 INCH HAIL SSE OF FORK SHOALS, SC.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

NCZ036-057-012245-
IREDELL-ROWAN-
621 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF CLEVELAND...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
STATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLEVELAND...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3571 8046 3561 8070 3585 8079 3590 8071
      3585 8070 3586 8067 3585 8067 3585 8063

LANE