Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT...A COMBINATION OF IMPROVING UPPER
FORCING...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SRLY FLOW...AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS ARE LEADING TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM OVER GA TODAY HAVE LED TO FURTHER ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS UP SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND BACKS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE FIRST
FOOTHILL BAND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF INTERSTATE
77 BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE DEVELOPING APPALACHIAN BAND WILL
TRANSIT THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHTIME HOURS. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
THE PRIMARY THREAT SINCE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY LOW AND
CAPE IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PLACE ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES GIVEN THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND SHARED COVERAGE...AS
WELL AS THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST WEEK.

THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE MAY WELL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP OR WASHES OUT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH A SHEAR AXIS OUT OVER INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE BEST CHC OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR..OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT
NE FLOW. THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ITS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO JUICY
CONDITIONS WITH PW VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY WED NIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND
SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYER WILL BECOME SATURATED. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK SBCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT.
HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON SUNDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO
THE EC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROF EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PROXIMITY TO A BUILDING TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL YIELD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THUS...EXPECTING INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MARINE AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THEREFORE WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON A DIURNAL HEATING TYPE PATTERN.
WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT POPS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND COULD CHANGE AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TROPICAL
FORMATION...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS BROAD MODEL
DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY.  THE GFS
SEEMS TO TREND WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN WEAKENING FURTHER AS
ITS REMNANTS CROSS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHERE IT DISSIPATES.  THE
ECMWF TAKES THE SAME TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT KEEPS A MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF SHORE NEAR SAVANNAH
GEORGIA...AND BRUSHING THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE EJECTING OUT TO SEA WITH THE
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CONVECTIVE LINE TRAVERSING THE UPSTATE THIS AFTN IS
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVER THE ERN UPSTATE BUT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO TSRA AT KCLT MAINLY 20Z TO 00Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVITY MAY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS WITH
THE LINE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WITH ALL THE PRECIP...A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
FEATURE ONLY MVFR UNTIL 11Z FOR NOW WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SW AWAY FROM ANY TSTMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STAYING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WILL NEED AT
LEAST ONE ROUND OF TEMPO TO FM TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY
MORE THAN ONE ROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD BE
SOLIDLY MVFR THROUGHOUT AS CONVECTION INCREASES...WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT GIVEN ALL THE RAINFALL. EXPECT SW
WINDS THROUGHOUT AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT BECOMING NW AT
KAVL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FIRE OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON MONDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME AT PRESENT.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING UNDER HIGH PRES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY OVER THE SFC HIGH MID TO LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     MED   68%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     MED   74%     MED   74%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  82%     MED   72%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  80%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
333 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TORNADO          6 WSW ANDERSON          34.48N 82.74W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TORNADO SPOTTED ON THE GROUND. POSSIBLE DAMAGE.

&&

CGANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

SCZ007-013-022115-
SPARTANBURG-UNION-
434 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF CROSS KEYS...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
UNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CROSS KEYS...BUFFALO AND UNION...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3459 8184 3472 8193 3489 8164 3487 8163
      3489 8160 3487 8154 3488 8153 3466 8148

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     TORNADO          6 NE SADLERS CREEK STAT 34.48N 82.75W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            DOBBINS BRIDGE RD AND BUSBY RD. POSSIBLE DAMAGE.

&&

CGANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ017-018-026-SCZ001-004-022145-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
449 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
HABERSHAM...SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE AND STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLLINGSWORTH...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF HOMER...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TOCCOA...
  CARNESVILLE...
  EASTANOLEE...
  MARTIN...
  LAVONIA...
  LAKE HARTWELL...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3474 8309 3438 8310 3433 8340 3442 8339
      3446 8340 3449 8354 3445 8359 3451 8361

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
522 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ026-028-029-022215-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HART-
522 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HART AND NORTHWESTERN
ELBERT COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARNESVILLE TO
WESTGATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CARNESVILLE...
  LAVONIA...
  CANON...
  ROYSTON...
  VANNA...
  BOWMAN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3415 8307 3417 8311 3423 8309 3426 8312
      3424 8319 3426 8331 3423 8336 3426 8334
      3432 8340 3440 8339 3448 8289 3444 8285
      3437 8284 3435 8280 3431 8279 3405 8298

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WSW ANDERSON          34.50N 82.77W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A ROOF BLOWN OFF A HOUSE ON BUSBY ROAD WHICH IS BETWEEN
            HIGHWAY 187 AND COUNTRY MEADOWS WHICH IS HIGHWAY 261.
            ALSO MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W ANDERSON            34.51N 82.75W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 24 AND
            NEW HOPE ROAD.

0442 PM     HAIL             5 N ANDERSON            34.60N 82.63W
06/02/2013  E0.50 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   COCORAHS

            MARBLE SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVER.

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW TIGERVILLE         35.09N 82.41W
06/02/2013  E0.90 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   COCORAHS

            0.90 INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 13 MINUTES.

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW PICKENS           34.88N 82.73W
06/02/2013  E0.00 INCH       PICKENS            SC   COCORAHS

            A HALF INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 5 MINUTES.

&&

OUTLAW