Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAVORING THE WESTERN SITE OF THE
CWFA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AS DECENT WWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW
BNDRYS ARE WORKING INTO 3500 J/KG CAPE AIR MASS. THE PULSE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREATS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS...BLENDING IN THE 18Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR...WHICH AGREE ON CONVECTION WORKING OVER THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SW NC MTNS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN TN WHERE THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS. I/M EXPECTING MOST
OF THIS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS...DUE TO THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND FORCING OVER OUR AREA.

AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...STILL SEEING AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
SITUATION ACROSS THE CWFA AS WEAK FORCING IS MAINTAINED WITHIN A
VERY BROAD H5 TROF. STILL EXPECT PULSE SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE ALIGNED WITH A LINE OF VORT ENERGY AND
ACROSS NC MTNS WHERE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT SOME -SHRA
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NC MTNS IN UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
MID MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH
CLEARING SHOULD BE HAD TO ENABLE MORNING FG...AND PATCHY/AREAS OF
DENSE FG THROUGH 13Z OR SO. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WED. THE WRN UPPER TROF IMPINGES UPON THE AREA AND
THE WRN ZONES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP/CONV
THAN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH END CHANCES ACROSS THE
MTNS. A GOOD HEATING DAY IN SW/LY FLOW WITH MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT
AND PULSE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS SETTING UP A MODEST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
NEAR AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AND THEN SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.  HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOTH UPPER AND SFC LOWS.  EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE.  LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE
80S NEAR AND ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...AND SHEAR PROFILES IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT ALONG THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SVR STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST...AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY MORNING.  BY DAYBREAK...ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL ADVECT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO
BUILD OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...LEADING TO PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ON AVERAGE ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRIER COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DRIEST AIR VARIES PER MODEL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND WARM
FRONT CHANNELS SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE NC MTNS TO START THE NEW
WEEK...POPS WILL INCREASE AT LEAST INTO THE SLIGHT RANGE. BASED ON
THE BLEND OF THE MODELS...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN WILL BE
GOING INTO MID WEEK. SEEMS BEST ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY. CONSIDERED GOING TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME...BUT THAT IS A WEEK AWAY AND MUCH COULD CHANGE. CAPES ON THE
GFS FOR TUES PM ARE 1100 TO 1400 AND WINDS GOING UP FROM SURFACE NOT
TOO BAD FOR THAT TIME.  TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AND LOWS COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY IN WEEKEND AND GOING ABOVE
INTO NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC PULSE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TAF ZONE BY 21Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 01Z. DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER...SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...AND SHUD HELP CREATE MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. ALSO
ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBY AFT 07Z THROUGH 13Z.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS...BUT RESTRICTIVE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THUS ALL TAF SITES WERE GIVEN A TEMPO
TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING. A MOIST ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS LOWERING AND ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS NON/MTNS AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY AT KAVL DEVELOPING A FEW HRS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK... CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   59%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     MED   66%     MED   69%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-220915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
510 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GAZ010-220000-
RABUN-
711 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 800
PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIGER...OR 3 MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLAYTON...
  MOUNTAIN CITY...
  DILLARD...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3500 8343 3489 8321 3481 8329 3482 8331
      3481 8330 3473 8338 3473 8340 3480 8355

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             6 ESE JONAS RIDGE       35.93N 81.81W
05/21/2013  M1.75 INCH       BURKE              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL DENTED VEHICLE AND CRACKED THE WINDSHIELD.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NCZ053-220015-
BUNCOMBE-
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
815 PM EDT...

AT 731 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF SWANNANOA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STRONG
  THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
  INDICATED COUNTY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3569 8253 3573 8236 3562 8232 3560 8247

MCAVOY