Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADJUST POPS PER RADAR
COVERAGE...AND TO TOUCH UP TEMPS USING LATEST OBS. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT AND ERN SC ZONES WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THEN CLOSER
TO SUNSET FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE MTNS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY ENTER FROM
TENNESSEE.

AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN USA THROUGH MONDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY...ONE EARLY
MONDAY...AND THE OTHER LATE MONDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA
HIGH.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TALL UPDRAFTS....AND A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE CELLS MOVE SLOWLY OR TRAIN. SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE WEAK...AND STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOT FAVORED...
LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...WHILE STEERING FLOW
INCREASES...DECREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. THE
BEST CASE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AS IT HAS
BEEN FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS NOW.

THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SUPPORT HIGHER POPS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER HOWEVER.
VERY MOIST PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BETTER
DEVELOPED STORMS...BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE MORE STEERING FLOW
THAN BEFORE TO KEEP CELLS MOVING. MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER FORCING MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN RIPPING VORT REMAINS PROGGED TO LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT GIVING A BOOST NOCTURNAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THROUGH DAYBREAK ON TUE. BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS CONTINUES ALL ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
WHETHER A PERIOD OF NVA BEHIND DEPARTING VORT WILL DELAY OR INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE INHERITED POPS RAMPING BACK UP TO ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MOS AGREEMENT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SHORT RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE L/WV TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER BOOST TO DIURNAL TSTM CVRG. ABOVE CLIMO
POPS WILL BE FEATURED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE 21/12 UTC OP GFS CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPPING E/SE OF THE CWFA ON THURSDAY...
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF EVENTUALLY LOWERING POPS TO BELOW
CLIMO...BUT FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY PARE INHERITED POP BACK TO LOW
CHANCE. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR FRIDAY AS THE CWFA MAY WIND UP
REMAINING WITHIN A MOISTURE AND LIFT MINIMA...BETWEEN THE LLVL
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST AND MORE ENERGY LOADING UP ACRS THE
MIDWEST AND MID SOUTH. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT LATE WEEK MAX TEMPS
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. MORE ROBUST TSTM CHANCES MAY
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY WITHIN LINGERING BROAD EASTERN
CONUS L/WV TROUGH ENCROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT /21Z UPDATE/...A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS
GIVER PERSISTENT PATTER...AN MVFR WILL BE CARRIED LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SITES THAT HAVE BEEN DIRECTLY HIT BY
TS THIS AFTN HAVE GONE TO LIFR VSBY FOR A TIME. WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPO...WITH IFR VSBY AND CIG. LIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SW... BUT TSTM CELLS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST LKLY TO BRING
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS IN 15-25 KT RANGE.

ELSEWHERE...BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG IN THE
FOOTHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH IFR AT KAVL. GUIDANCE IS TOO
OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND A PERSISTENCE PATTERN.
MVFR CIGS WIL BE CARRIED LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE WSW.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP DRIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LIKELY CAUSE RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS
EARLY EACH MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     LOW   50%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   65%     MED   63%     LOW   54%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   61%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   62%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   60%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
151 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

SCZ003-006-007-211945-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOWENSVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GLASSY
  MOUNTAIN...LAKE ROBINSON...LAKE BOWEN...TIGERVILLE...LANDRUM...
  INMAN...GOWENSVILLE...FINGERVILLE AND CAMPOBELLO.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3506 8242 3519 8232 3520 8227 3518 8195
      3492 8216

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

SCZ005>007-010-212015-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-SPARTANBURG-
329 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EASTERN
PICKENS...NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND WESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE ROBINSON TO
BEREA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE HORSE
  ROAD AT I-85...PELHAM ROAD AT I-85...SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...
  CHERRYDALE POINT...LAKE ROBINSON...HAYWOOD MALL...GSP AIRPORT...
  FURMAN UNIVERSITY...DONALDSON CENTER...FIVE FORKS...WELLFORD...
  WELCOME...TRAVELERS REST...TAYLORS...REIDVILLE...POWDERSVILLE...
  PIEDMONT...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...MAULDIN...LYMAN...GREER...
  DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...EASLEY...DUNCAN AND BEREA.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3464 8245 3484 8264 3502 8240 3504 8232
      3497 8190

JOH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

SCZ007>009-012-013-212200-
CHEROKEE-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-YORK-
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE...NORTHERN LAURENS...
NORTHWESTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GAFFNEY TO WOODRUFF...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODRUFF...
  THICKETTY...SPARTANBURG...SMYRNA...SARATT...ROEBUCK...PAULINE...
  PACOLET MILLS...PACOLET...ORA...MOORE...KINGS MOUNTAIN STATE
  PARK...JONESVILLE...HICKORY GROVE...GAFFNEY...ENOREE...CROSS
  KEYS...CROSS ANCHOR...COWPENS...CLOVER...BUFFALO AND BLACKSBURG.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3473 8218 3477 8215 3479 8216 3518 8168
      3514 8115 3447 8194

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

SCZ008-009-013-014-212245-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-UNION-YORK-
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN UNION...
NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHWESTERN YORK
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ADAMSBURG...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNION...
  SHARON...SARATT...MONARCH MILLS...MCCONNELLS...LOCKHART...BULLOCK
  CREEK AND ADAMSBURG.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDER AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3502 8112 3464 8138 3474 8168 3495 8150

JOH