Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. ABUNDANT TSTM ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT IN VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES. THAT DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT
OVER THE CWFA ATTM AND WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESS WESTWARD
CONTINUING TO ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. WE STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPSTATE SIMILAR TO WHAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
MIDLANDS. FURTHER NORTH CELLS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BDY MOVING SSW THRU THE NC PIEDMONT AND NRN FOOTHILLS. THIS
LINE OF STMS WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA THAT HAS NOT SEEN MUCH ACTIVITY
YET SO THERE SHOULD BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR THE LINE TO WORK
WITH...THUS HAVE REVISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER THAN REVISED POPS/TEMPS HAVE NOT MADE
CHANGES TO FCST.

AS OF EARLY WED AFTN...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KGSO AND KFFC
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES. THE WBZ
HAS LIFTED TO 13.8 KFT AT KGSO AND 11.7 KFT AT KFFC. BOTH SOUNDINGS
INDICATED CAPE VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG WITH SWEAT VALUES FROM 190 TO
300. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM HELICITY INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY TO AROUND
25 M2/S2...WITH STORM MOTIONS SW AROUND 10 KTS. THE LATEST MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG. DCAPES RANGES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODEL...COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
PIEDMONT THROUGH 330 PM. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SCT TO NUM
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THE STANDARD DIURNAL CYCLE...SUPPORTED BY
WANING HIGH LEVELS OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I WILL FORECAST SCT MTN
COVERAGE UNTIL 5Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS AND THINNING DEBRIS CLOUDS. AREAS THAT OBSERVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A STRONG CHC OF DEVELOPING FOG
AROUND SUNRISE THURS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. LOWS
RANGING VERY CLOSE TO THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

THURSDAY...LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO DESCEND ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS AND ATLANTIC STATES BY THE
AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AROUND H65. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORECAST SFC
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SIMILAR TODAY...CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE
COMPARABLE TO THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY DELAY CONVECTION TO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AND NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL
FAVOR THE MTNS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ISO TO SCT COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WHILE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FARTHER
SOUTH WITH TIME. THIS CREATES SOMEWHAT OF A CONUNDRUM IN DIAGNOSING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...SINCE THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL
BE MORE OR LESS POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THE MID-LEVELS OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARM...THEY ARE HARDLY CAPPED AND THE
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO QUITE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED FOR AN
ESSENTIALLY CLIMATOLOGICAL POP DISTRIBUTION...WITH LOW CHANCE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...AND SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS.

BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACCORDING TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...
RESULTING IN A PATTERN SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE CLIMO BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY MID TO HIGH CHANCES IN MOST AREAS.
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...
SO THE USUAL MID-SUMMER THREATS OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO...OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SPELL A
RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DEPICT THIS FRONTAL ZONE AS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED/QUASI-STATIONARY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY BE MINIMAL...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST...SUPPORTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WHILE POPS LOWER
SOMEWHAT MON-WED FROM THEIR SUNDAY NADIR...THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUCH A PATTERN SUGGESTS A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED WEST...OPTIMIZING HEATING ACROSS
THE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE HEATING MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLUSTER OF TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
20-23Z...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A TEMPO. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATES THAT THE THREAT FOR SHRA AND TSRA MAY CONTINUE UNTIL 3Z.
CONVECTION REMAIN UNTIL 3Z SEEMS A LITTLE BEYOND THE DIURNAL WINDOW
OF TODAY/S CONVECTION...HOWEVER...I WILL KEEP SHRA IN THE TAF UNTIL
3Z. AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN OVER AND NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAWN FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND
CALM WINDS. ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...CU BASES AROUND 040.

ELSEWHERE...ALL WESTERN CAROLINA TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHC FOR A
TSRA PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 3Z. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATE TONIGHT WITH
THINNING DEBRIS CLOUDS. TERMINALS THAT OBSERVE RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A STRONG CHC FOR DAWN
FOG...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. KAVL CLOUD SEE LIFR VIS
WITH FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. THROUGH MID MORNING...LIGHT NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 040.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THRU FRIDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SEWD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. NORMAL...IF NOT
ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACRS THE
REGION EACH DAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
306 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

NCZ033-501-502-172045-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
404 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DARBY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PATTERSON...
  GLOBE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8146 3606 8140 3585 8164
      3587 8171 3592 8175 3593 8177 3595 8178
      3595 8179 3602 8187 3613 8166 3613 8155

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

NCZ033-050-501-503-505-172100-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
407 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY...EASTERN MITCHELL...
NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LINVILLE...
  NEWLAND...
  NEWLAND...
  JONAS RIDGE...
  INGALLS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3616 8182 3612 8181 3613 8173 3607 8167
      3584 8194 3603 8214 3619 8185

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

GAZ010-017-172100-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HABERSHAM AND RABUN
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNTAIN CITY...OR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN CITY...
  CLAYTON...
  LAKEMONT...
  LAKE BURTON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3492 8363 3500 8343 3500 8331 3489 8322
      3469 8352 3487 8367

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             STONY POINT             35.87N 81.05W
07/17/2013  E0.88 INCH       ALEXANDER          NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL RELAYED BY BLACKSBURG WEATHER OFFICE.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

NCZ502>504-172115-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
433 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GAMEWELL...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LENOIR...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  COLLETTSVILLE...
  MORGANTON...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3579 8136 3557 8168 3558 8171 3561 8172
      3561 8175 3560 8178 3583 8195 3585 8192
      3588 8190 3593 8175 3589 8173 3598 8157

07