Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...THE POOL OF BEST SB CAPE VALUES REMAINS ACROSS NE GA
AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CONVERGING TO
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTN. WILL DCAPE VALUES
RUNNING 1000 TO 1200...AND A RECENT HISTORY OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL
WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 8 TO 9 PM. THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED OR POSSIBLY SCT LIGHT
SHRA.

THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE MS VALLEY SAT...WHILE AT THE SFC AN
INVERTED TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH CONTINUED
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NAM IS ALONE IN KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE
TRENDS OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND INCREASE POP TO LIKELY OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENUF INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT SEVERE WILL BE LESS LIKELY AS THE
COOL AND DRY MID LEVELS MOVE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW. FOR NOW...THE
QPF FORECAST DOES NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY SAT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY FRI...ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA
BY THE START OF THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONT. MODEST E TO SE
LLVL FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST WEAK FORCING
WITH THE MAIN EFFECT TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF ALREADY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY A PLUME OF PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES CROSSES THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS THE PLUME MOVES INLAND. SATURATED LAYER ON
PROG SOUNDINGS REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW WITH BEST LOOKING SOUNDINGS
IN THIS REGARD COMING FROM THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS. WEAK NEAR-SFC
INSTABILITY IS SEEN THOUGH...AND INDEED THE NAM PRECIP SHOWN SAT
NIGHT IS ALL CONVECTIVE. CLOUD LAYER FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO LIMIT...BUT NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
GOING FURTHER INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY SOME DRYING OCCURS AND PWATS
LOWER CLOSER TO CLIMO. DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE...CAPE
VALUES OF 2000 J OR MORE ARE SHOWN ON THE NAM /1000 OR MORE ON GFS/
SO SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WEAK BUT STORM MOTIONS FAIRLY SLOW...THUS MORE OF THE SAME CONCERNS
IN THAT REGARD BUT PERHAPS WITH MORE CONCERN FOR SVR WX.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUN NIGHT SOMEWHAT DISRUPTING THE LLVL FLOW
ON THE GFS/NAM DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE...AND CONTINUING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE. A WEAK MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS BUT SOME
PROG SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE A REFLECTION
OF THE SUBSIDENCE. THUS HUNG ON TO VERY LOW BUT MENTIONABLE POPS THRU
THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEST WHERE THE BEST LLVL MOISTURE
REMAINS. ON MONDAY WARM MIDLEVELS APPEAR TO CONTINUE TO STIFLE
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEARER THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH.

WITH THE REGION COMING BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN DOMINATED BY
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD...REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE MORE
NORTHWARD THAN USUAL POSITION OF THE HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS BECOME DRIER IN THE
LATEST OP MODEL RUNS. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL A MOISTER MODEL WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW...WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS LLVL LAYERED RH THE RATHER LOW.
IN ANY CASE...A DEEP SUB INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS STACKED HIGH. THUS...SCF
BASED PARCELS WILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CIN TO OVERCOME WITH NO
DEFINED KICKER...HOWEVER SOME MODERATE ELCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
AREAS UNDER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD SPAWN ISOL AFTERNOON PULSE
STORMS. THE CLIMO POP IS ADHERED TO ACROSS THE MTNS AS WELL...WITH
NE/LY TO E/LY MECH LIFT PROVIDING THE ADDED FACTOR FOR SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...YET INCREASE AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES IN A MORE DEFINED AND CONTINUOUS SW/LY LLVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AND NORMALLY PLACED BERMUDA HIGH. MAX
TEMPS WILL RESPOND IN THE DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL MIN TEMPS WILL
ALSO PERSIST AS EVENING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOL CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE VICINITY HAS BEEN LARGELY EXEMPT FROM CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAINLY S AND W OF THE AREA
MOVING AWAY INTO SC. WILL JUST MENTION VCSH FOR A POSSIBLE ROGUE
SHOWER...WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW END GUSTS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDOWN. ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO MVFR AND
THEN IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW RISE TO MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. NE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS...AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND THE UPSTATE TAFS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH DRYING AT KHKY. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ROGUE -SHRA POSSIBLE IN ANY UPSLOPE MOISTURE.
ANTICIPATE MAINLY IFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK...IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING SAT AFTN. EXPECT
MAINLY NE WINDS AWAY FROM ANY TSTMS...WITH BRIEF GUSTS THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   65%     MED   77%
KGSP       MED   71%     HIGH  97%     MED   73%     MED   72%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     MED   61%     MED   72%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  94%     MED   70%     MED   72%
KAND       LOW   58%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  90%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-132145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND THE GROUND IS
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE EAST.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ026-028-122230-
FRANKLIN-HART-
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN FRANKLIN AND HART
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF LAVONIA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HARTWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CANON...
  ROYSTON...
  HARTWELL...
  VANNA...
  NUBERG...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3424 8302 3422 8308 3427 8314 3444 8319
      3441 8285 3438 8283 3437 8284 3432 8279
      3429 8278 3425 8292 3421 8298

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE RUTHERFORDTON     35.42N 81.93W
07/12/2013                   RUTHERFORD         NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN AND GAS LINE RUPTURE ON OSCAR JUSTICE RD.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S RUTHERFORDTON       35.32N 81.97W
07/12/2013                   RUTHERFORD         NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ALONG BABER...BIG ISLAND
            AND COXE ROADS.

&&

CSH