Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR.
STILL SEE SOME MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT THE EXTENT...THOUGH...WITH THE
NEW NAM STILL SUGGESTING SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SEEMING TO DOWNPLAY THAT. THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET CONVECTION TO FORM FARTHER S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL
OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS. THE AREA OVER UPSTATE SC AND
NE GEORGIA MIGHT BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE BECAUSE OF
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER DCAPE. WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ONTO THE LIKELY
POP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COULD END UP WITH SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS OUT OF THIS AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO WE WILL LOOK FOR ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP INTO SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD DRIVE THE CONVECTION E BY MID
EVENING AND BRING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT SHOULD PUT A STOP TO
IT. NOT EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...SO THE FCST WAS KEPT
DRY AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

FOR SATURDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THE UPPER LOW
DIGS OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS GRADUALLY BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT TO
SOMETHING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH ACTUALLY LEAVES THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS IN SOMETHING OF A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODELS
SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THE MOISTURE
IS DEEPER. FEEL OKAY ABOUT SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICAL...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT
GREAT THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH OUTSIDE THE MTNS. GRUDGINGLY KEPT A
CHANCE POP E OF THE BLUE RIDGE OWING TO MOS GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF SATURDAY
REALLY IS THE QUIET DAY. TEMPS WERE KEPT A BIT ABOVE A GUIDANCE
BLEND THINKING THAT STORMS MIGHT BE FEWER THAN THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY SAT EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
I-77 CORRIDOR SW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD SEE
A GENERAL LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS/EC SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THESE
MODELS MOVE THE BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ALL AREAS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DUE TARGET
THE EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME HIGHER QPF LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST PULLS A VORT MAX THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HENCE...HAVE POPS IN THE NUMEROUS RANGE FROM THE
EASTERN UPSTATE THROUGH THE I-77 CORRIDOR FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER LULL IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL AGAIN RAMP UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS SOME VORT ENERGY ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LOW
TO THE W. USED ALLBLEND DATA FOR MOST FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PARK
ITSELF ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE
TROUGH...AND WILL BE A MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST QPF VALUES WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS ITSELF BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE RESURGING BERMUDA HIGH
WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ABUNDANT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LOWS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ESSENTIALLY ANOTHER VFR FCST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED CU SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE 045 TO 060 RANGE THROUGH
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. TIME OF STORMS IS BY NO MEANS
CERTAIN...SO HAVE TAKEN A SHOT AT 21Z TO 00Z BASED LOOSELY ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THIS COULD EASILY SLIP
IF SOMETHING ORGANIZES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT IF THAT
HAPPENS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING SHOULD GO UP. SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. KEEP
AN EYE TO THE WEST. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW DUE TO A LEE TROF. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING...
LEAVING BEHIND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. THERE COULD BE SOME GROUND FOG
THAT BRIEFLY REDUCES THE VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD BUBBLE UP WITH HEATING BY MID MORNING...
WITH WIND REMAINING SW DUE TO PERSISTENT PATTERN.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT...BUT THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EVEN LESS CERTAIN. WAS TEMPTED TO LEAVE TSRA
OUT BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...BUT WANTED TO KEEP SOME AGREEMENT
WITH PUBLIC FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS VERY PERSISTENT.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCT...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNUSUALLY MOIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-292000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH MODERATE WIND
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY... WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING... PARTICULARLY IF THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN
AN URBAN AREA OR A LOCATION THAT HAS SEEN HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

NCZ057-072-282145-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
502 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LANDIS...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
CONCORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CONCORD...
  ROCKWELL...
  MOUNT PLEASANT...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3528 8043 3528 8044 3547 8070
      3563 8059 3558 8020 3555 8020 3552 8018
      3550 8018

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

GAZ010-NCZ062-282230-
MACON-RABUN-
529 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RABUN AND SOUTHEASTERN MACON
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TITUS...OR 5 MILES EAST OF HIAWASSEE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BURTON...
  MOUNTAIN CITY...
  PINE MOUNTAIN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3489 8366 3494 8360 3495 8356 3499 8356
      3500 8353 3505 8356 3505 8314 3499 8310
      3493 8312 3493 8315 3488 8320 3488 8323
      3481 8327 3482 8331 3476 8333 3483 8360
      3483 8366 3484 8367

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

GAZ017-018-026-282300-
FRANKLIN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-
602 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN HABERSHAM AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOSSY CREEK TO 5
MILES SOUTH OF PENDERGRASS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DEMOREST...
  CLARKESVILLE...
  TOCCOA...
  CARNESVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3432 8340 3446 8340 3449 8354
      3443 8362 3448 8366 3451 8367 3454 8362
      3463 8365 3463 8325 3461 8323 3461 8316
      3450 8307 3427 8312 3423 8317 3426 8331
      3422 8335

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N ENOCHVILLE          35.58N 80.68W
06/28/2013                   ROWAN              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A GARAGE AT 200 CONCORDIA CHURCH RD

&&

LG

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