River Flood Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER...FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST ON WEDNESDAY...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE GSP COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. PLEASE CHECK
OUR WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

LATEST REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBS REVEALED THAT A
STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE WAS STRETCHING FROM NE
GEORGIA TO THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LOCAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
THE LATEST NAM/GFS/RAP/HI-RES ARW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH 21Z (5PM EST)...UPSTATE SC AND NC FOOTHILLS 21Z-00Z
(5PM-8PM)...NC PEIDMONT INCLUDING THE CHAROLLTE METRO AREA 00Z-03Z
(8PM-11PM). SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF
20-35MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS LINE. CURRENT
LAPS AND THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS REVEALED STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OF +40KTS(0-1KM LAYER) WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
100-200J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
SUPPORT WIDEPSREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOUR WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL OCCUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SQUALL LINE. I HAVE CARRIED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONG NW COLD ADVECTION FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT TONIGHT. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO -10C ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MOUTAINS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER
LINE MIDNIGNTH INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM
THE UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 20S
WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE AND FROZE SLUSH THURSDAY
MORNING...SO I WILL CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH COLD AIR MASS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...OUR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING'S LOW. WE
WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
AS WE REMAIN AT THE BOTTOM OF A BROAD UPPER LONG WAVE TROF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROF WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT SLUG OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL GET RUN UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
MTNS BY SOME STRONG W TO NW FLOW AT 850MB. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER.
THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.
HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT BEING SO FAR TO THE N...THINK THE ANSWER IS
NO. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL
CROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW
WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL START
TO INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS A SUBTLE
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE START OUT WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE TROF WILL DRIVE A WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...TO WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF RESPOND WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP. A CHANCE OVER THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHC E OF THE MTNS SHOULD
SUFFICE...AND THIS WOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS AND
MAINLY RAIN OUTSIDE THE MTNS...BUT THIS HAS VERY LOW POTENTIAL TO BE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINOR EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...AGAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS ONE ALSO HAS VERY LOW POTENTIAL AND WAS
HANDLED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POP FOR RAIN/SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THIS FRONT COMING
BACK NORTH AND REACTIVATING AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WAS DISREGARDED FOR THE TIME BEING AS THE ECMWF WAS DRY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LATEST REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT A
STRONG SQUALL LINE WAS STRETCHING FROM NW GEORGIA TO EXTREME WESTERN
NC MOUNTAINS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 22Z...UPSTATE SC AND NC
FOOTHILLS 22Z-01Z...AND NC PIEDMONT INCLUDING KCLT 02Z-05Z. STRONG S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS LINE ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS TO +45MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNINGS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOUR WILL OCCUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING
FROM S/SW TO W/NW. WITH DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH W/NW WINDS OF
15-20KTS THROUGH 18Z THU FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR VFR...WITH MORNING VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ017-018-026-028-
     029.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ059-062>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JOH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E ROSMAN                35.14N 82.82W
01/30/2013                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EAST FORK RD UNDER WATER

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                35.18N 83.38W
01/30/2013                   MACON              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES FELL AND HIT HOMES IN MACON COUNTY.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W FRANKLIN              35.18N 83.38W
01/30/2013                   MACON              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 64 WESTBOUND.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROBBINSVILLE            35.32N 83.81W
01/30/2013                   GRAHAM             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL THROUGH A MOBILE HOME IN GRAHAM COUNTY. NOBODY
            HURT.

0530 PM     FLOOD            SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
01/30/2013                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SAVANNAH CREEK FLOODING

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
01/30/2013                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY BECAUSE OF
            DOWNED TREES.

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
01/30/2013  E2.50 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN...24 HR TOTAL.

0530 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      N ROSMAN                35.14N 82.82W
01/30/2013                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDE ON HIGHWAY 215. ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN OLD
            CHERRYFIELD RD AND MACEDONIA CHURCH RD. ROAD CAVING IN.

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SE BREVARD              35.24N 82.73W
01/30/2013                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RUNNING ACROSS GREENVILLE HIGHWAY

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      N ROSMAN                35.14N 82.82W
01/30/2013                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OLD WAGON RD BLOCKED WITH WATER

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE ROSMAN             35.16N 82.80W
01/30/2013                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HANNAH FORD RD COVERED NEAR CALVERT RD

&&

WIMBERLEY